204 S Duke St · York, PA 17401

$77,500

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,508 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1870 1,420 sqft lot $31/sqft · 44% below area Est $138k · 44% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! Great opportunity to bring this property back to life. Full rehab needed — ideal for seasoned investors, flippers, or contractors looking for their next project. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer responsible for all closing costs and both sides of transfer tax. Tons of potential with the right vision. Don’t miss this value-add opportunity!

Key facts

• Built 1870
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes reported (2026): $1,701

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Major rehab needed
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $835 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 5.9% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hannah Penn (math 0% / reading 9%, grade F, #1,516 of 1,518 statewide, top 100%, 679 students, 100% FRL); Edgar Fahs Smith Steam Academy (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #432 of 512 statewide, top 85%, 240 students, 100% FRL); William Penn Shs (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #407 of 437 statewide, top 94%, 1,534 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,791/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1360% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $536 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,337 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.16%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,534
• List price: $77,500
• Delta: -43.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 E Philadelphia St	0.33mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,484 (-1%)	1mo	$150,000	$60	77
321 E Poplar St	0.29mi	5/2.5	2,442 (-3%)	2mo	$160,000	$66	77
104 S Pershing Ave	0.35mi	6/1.0 (+1)	2,526 (+1%)	3mo	$139,900	$55	73
336 E King St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (-4%)	8mo	$104,900	$44	64
156 S Pershing Ave	0.34mi	5/1.5	2,270 (-10%)	9mo	$179,900	$79	61
342 E King St	0.34mi	5/1.5	2,292 (-9%)	11mo	$165,000	$72	61
41 N Newberry St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,480 (-1%)	12mo	$225,000	$91	55
125 N Queen St	0.39mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,268 (-10%)	5mo	$70,000	$31	54
237 E Poplar St	0.20mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,142 (-15%)	7mo	$120,000	$56	54
295 Kurtz Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,666 (+6%)	4mo	$160,000	$60	52
608 S Pershing Ave	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,280 (-9%)	4mo	$180,000	$79	45
311 Smyser St	0.69mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,148 (-14%)	9mo	$175,000	$81	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $46,937
• Equity at exit: $11,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $137,166
• Equity at exit: $6,701

Cash invested: $21,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17401

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $77,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $879	-5% $857	+0% $835	+5% $813	+10% $791
Rent	-10% $693	-5% $764	+0% $835	+5% $905	+10% $976
Rate	-1.0pp $874	-0.5pp $854	base $835	+0.5pp $815	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,375
• Closing costs: $2,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Kurtz Ave York, PA	5.0	1.0	1921	$1,850	$0.96	15d	1	0.51mi
119 W Jackson St York, PA	4.0	1.0	1800	$1,395	$0.78	45d	1	0.58mi
26 N West St York, PA	6.0	2.0	2100	$2,200	$1.05	22d	1	1.05mi
121 S Belvidere Ave Unit 121 York, PA	5.0	1.5	1846	$1,450	$0.79	45d	1	1.12mi
709 W Princess St York, PA	5.0	1.0	1829	$1,425	$0.78	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $77,500 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $77,500 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $77,500 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $87,500 373-char remark
5. 2026-05-14
   listed $92,500 Active 373-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,341
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$2,255
• Taxable income: $9,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $7,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York City SD
• NCES district ID: 4226820
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $29,470
• Composite: 7.61/100
• National rank: #9943
• State rank: #534 of 539 in PA

Livability — York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #3987

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: York, PA
• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 184,764
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,570
• Household income: $42,826
• Rent vs Own: 67.4% rent · 32.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1360.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 31% Black 24% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 22% Dominican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.82%
• Current HPI: 323.5537
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $77,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $87,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $92,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,701 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.