89 Johnson Station Rd · Dillwyn, VA 23936

$330,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2005 3.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a nice 3.19-acre lot is this 2-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 1,690 square feet. You'll notice the covered front porch when you pull up in the driveway and once inside the house there are wood floors, living area with gas fireplace that flows into the dining area, bright kitchen, large bedrooms and bathrooms. Outside, a 20'x10' garage/shop and a shed have plenty of room for working on hobbies and storage. Come take a look at YOUR new home today!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Covered front porch
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GAS FIREPLACE
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• STORAGE SHED
• QUIET COUNTRY RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl siding; Approximately 3.19 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central Air; Heat Pump; Hot Water; Electric
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Heat pump plus hot water and electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (38.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#435 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Buckingham County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #117 of 131 in VA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Buckingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Buckingham County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $330k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,971 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $151,600
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $468,221
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23936

• Home prices YoY: 21.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,007/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $252,319

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-346	+0% $-440	+5% $-533	+10% $-627
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-520	+0% $-440	+5% $-360	+10% $-280
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-356	base $-440	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $330,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $330,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $340,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $340,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $340,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $340,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $340,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $340,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,007 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,007
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$11,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,158
• Composite: 35.58/100
• National rank: #4897
• State rank: #117 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dillwyn

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #18682

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,992

Population outlook (Buckingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,866 people
• By 2030: 16,625 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 16,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 15,588 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 14,125 · -16.3%
• By 2100: 11,701 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 40% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buckingham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.8% · R 61.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+2.4 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.71%
• Current HPI: 221.8804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+183.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $340,000 SCAR
• 2020-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2020-03-02 Sold (MLS) $219,900 CVRMLS
• 2020-03-02 Sold (MLS) $219,900 LMLS
• 2020-03-02 Sold (MLS) $219,900 SCAR
• 2019-09-30 Listed $219,900 CAAR
• 2019-09-30 Listed $219,900 CVRMLS
• 2019-09-30 Listed $219,900 LMLS
• 2007-10-23 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2007-06-12 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2007-04-22 Listed $199,000 CAAR
• 2007-01-12 Listed $119,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,007 · +79.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.