1040 Canyon Dr · Justin, TX 76247

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2001 0.30 ac lot $137/sqft · 19% below area Est $526k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large, updated corner lot home in growing Justin, Texas. Just west of DFW. Northwest ISD. No HOA. Impressive 4 bedroom 2 1 half bath home with upgrades throughout. Large Primary Bedroom with two walk in closets. Two full size living areas. Open kitchen with breakfast nook and separate dining area. Covered patio (20x14) for entertaining and storage building with additional parking. This house is a must see for any growing family!!!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Two walk in closets
• Upgrades throughout

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UPGRADES THROUGHOUT
• TWO WALK IN CLOSETS
• TWO FULL SIZE LIVING AREAS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Exclusions: all window treatments, TVs and TV brackets
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (approx. 20' wide x 19' long); 2-car carport; Covered parking for 3 vehicles; Additional parking available
• Security: Audio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual water meter; Underground utilities; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2001; Brick and wood construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Lot is approximately 0.296 acres; Property is subdivided

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Primary bedroom located on second level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom with dual sinks and separate vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Fireplace with brick surround; Two living areas; Two dining areas; Total of 14 rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on first level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-542 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Justin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Justin El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 605 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1503 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,135 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $526,071
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -19.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1024 Ridgetop Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,951 (-5%)	2mo	$414,995	$141	82
1037 Elmwood Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	3,287 (+6%)	3mo	$574,900	$175	75
1013 Kettlewood Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	3,298 (+7%)	4mo	$475,000	$144	68
413 Oakcrest Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,751 (-11%)	2mo	$469,900	$171	62
1112 Cascades	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,027 (-2%)	3mo	$477,244	$158	57
1082 Fleetwood Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,644 (-15%)	4mo	$549,900	$208	45
206 Oakcrest Dr	0.53mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,479 (+12%)	1mo	$575,000	$165	42
1019 Silver Sage Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,693 (-13%)	3mo	$438,650	$163	41
1088 Foxtail Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,664 (-14%)	2mo	$463,560	$174	40
1003 Sedona Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,664 (-14%)	4mo	$446,919	$168	38
1001 Silver Sage Dr	0.60mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+15%)	2mo	$599,537	$169	34
1006 Stonehaven Dr	0.74mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,487 (+13%)	3mo	$613,870	$176	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-112,791
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-179,020
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1503
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$720 /mo · $8,643/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,957

Max offer price $329,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-301	-5% $-421	+0% $-542	+5% $-662	+10% $-782
Rent	-10% $-800	-5% $-671	+0% $-542	+5% $-412	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-434	base $-542	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Sagewood Dr Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	3427	$3,500	$1.02	13d	1	0.22mi
1208 Sagewood Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	3427	$3,500	$1.02	18d	1	0.22mi
210 Spruce Valley Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2238	$2,800	$1.25	18d	1	0.48mi
715 Parkside Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	2978	$3,150	$1.06	0d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $425,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $435,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $435,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $435,000 Active 435-char remark
16. 2026-04-13
    historical
17. 2026-03-28
    price $435,000
18. 2025-11-22
    price $450,000
19. 2025-10-13
    listed $475,000 Active
20. 2025-10-01
    historical
21. 2025-09-09
    price $475,000
22. 2025-05-14
    price $485,000
23. 2025-04-03
    listed $495,000 Active
24. 2023-05-04
    soldstatus
25. 2019-02-08
    historical
26. 2019-01-11
    price $298,000
27. 2019-01-03
    listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,643 · $720/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,643 · $720/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$8,643
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,140
• − Management: −$3,140
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$13,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,351
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Justin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #9059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Justin, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 21,726
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $485,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $495,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-01-11 Price Changed $298,000 NTREIS
• 2019-01-03 Listed $315,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,643 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.