66 Blue Aspen Dr · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$105,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Land · 268 Days on market

Built 2008 4,792 sqft lot $262/sqft · 145% above area $227/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A true cabin in the woods with a steam bordering the property edge!!! Log Cabin rv featuring 1 bedroom with 2 loft areas for additional storage and/or sleeping space. Rustic real wood cabinets are featured throughout as well as real wood furniture. One bedroom with ample closet space with 2 additional loft areas which could be used in many different ways leaving endless possibilities. Spacious kitchen with large pantry closet and full-sized stove. Large open living/dining makes the space feel large. 4 season amenity filled campground offers something for everyone, Pool, lake, clubhouse, mini golf, sports fields, exercise room and more. Annual dues include water, electric and sewer. Don't forget about all the local amenities the Pocono mountains have to offer as well, local waterfalls, hiking trail and access to the Delaware river. Enjoy the sightseeing in the town of Milford and more!!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Large pantry closet
• Pool

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• RUSTIC REAL WOOD CABINETS
• LARGE PANTRY CLOSET
• POOL
• LAKE
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.2% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dingman-Delaware El Sch (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 502 students, 51% FRL); Dingman-Delaware Ms (math 20% / reading 57%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 524 students, 45% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,927
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 144.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-6,590
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,131
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $197	+0% $161	+5% $125	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $105	+0% $161	+5% $217	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $188	base $161	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 247 DOM
16. 2025-09-26
    listed $105,000 Active 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    A true cabin in the woods with a steam bordering the property edge!!! Log Cabin rv featuring 1 bedroom with 2 loft areas for additional storage and/or sleeping space. Rustic real wood cabinets are featured throughout as well as real wood furniture. One bedroom with ample closet space with 2 additional loft areas which could be used in many different ways leaving endless possibilities. Spacious kitchen with large pantry closet and full-sized stove. Large open living/dining makes the space feel large. 4 season amenity filled campground offers something for everyone, Pool, lake, clubhouse, mini golf, sports fields, exercise room and more. Annual dues include water, electric and sewer. Don't forget about all the local amenities the Pocono mountains have to offer as well, local waterfalls, hiking trail and access to the Delaware river. Enjoy the sightseeing in the town of Milford and more!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,353
• − Management: −$1,353
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Listed $105,000 PWMLS