1319 Pailet Ave · Harvey, LA 70058

$83,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1964 $84/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1964
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.8% in Harvey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $83k implies a 1560% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,020 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.80%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,774
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -52.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1039 Price Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+2%)	9mo	$175,000	$174	57
1053 Sandalwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	932 (-6%)	7mo	$178,000	$191	48
1472 Dogwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+6%)	13mo	$106,000	$101	46
1509 Maplewood Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	921 (-7%)	19mo	$145,000	$157	46
1469 Dogwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (+5%)	19mo	$184,500	$178	43
1537 Dogwood Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,044 (+6%)	12mo	$170,000	$163	42
1708 Ute Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,079 (+9%)	18mo	$169,000	$157	33
1909 Esther St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,051 (+7%)	24mo	$95,000	$90	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-5,354
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-4,398
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70058

• Rents YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2407 Florence St Harvey, LA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	0.14mi
2205 Argyll St Harvey, LA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	21d	1	0.28mi
1113 Scotsdale Dr Unit D Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	4d	1	0.29mi
938 Brown Ave Unit 103 Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	4d	1	0.37mi
1013 Manhattan Blvd Harvey, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	837	$1,789	$2.14	1d	10	0.83mi
1520 Orchid Dr Harvey, LA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	0.88mi
1520 Orchid Dr Harvey, LA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	4d	1	0.88mi
1121 Farrington Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	4d	1	0.95mi
1124 Tallow Tree Ln #20 Harvey, LA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,150	$1.13	3d	1	0.95mi
729 5th Ave Harvey, LA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,450	$1.49	44d	1	0.96mi
2110 Willow St Unit C Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,155	$1.18	43d	1	0.96mi
526 Brown Ave Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.96mi
2108 Willow St Unit A Harvey, LA	1.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	4d	1	0.97mi
629 Bellanger St Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,200	$1.24	43d	1	1.10mi
2504 Claire Ave Gretna, LA	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,600	$1.55	43d	1	1.10mi
420 Fairmont St Harvey, LA	1.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	4d	1	1.13mi
433 Olive Ave Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	1.13mi
605 Bellanger St Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	1.14mi
429 Olive Ave Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	1067	$1,500	$1.41	23d	1	1.14mi
2416 4th St Harvey, LA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.14mi
506 MacArthur Ave Harvey, LA	2.0	1.0	824	$1,200	$1.46	4d	1	1.19mi
911 Central Ave Gretna, LA	2.0	1.0	777	$1,400	$1.80	4d	1	1.20mi
1113 Dolhonde St Gretna, LA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,725	$2.21	43d	1	1.21mi
1122 10th St Gretna, LA	2.0	1.0	973	$1,700	$1.75	4d	1	1.21mi
1029 Dolhonde St Gretna, LA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	43d	1	1.24mi
822 Gulf Dr Gretna, LA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	14d	1	1.24mi
1553 Avenue A Marrero, LA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.27mi
519 Farrington Dr Marrero, LA	2.0	1.0	955	$1,500	$1.57	43d	1	1.31mi
700 Derbigny St Gretna, LA	2.0	1.5	1064	$1,300	$1.22	23d	1	1.41mi
509 Avenue A Marrero, LA	2.0	2.0	812	$1,700	$2.09	43d	1	1.43mi
511 Avenue B Marrero, LA	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	1.47mi
1499 Central Park Blvd Harvey, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,870	$1.87	2d	18	1.50mi
4200 4th St Marrero, LA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $83,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

15. 2026-05-13
    price $83,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $99,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

18. 2026-04-04
    price $114,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

19. 2026-04-04
    price $114,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $130,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

21. 2026-03-31
    listed $130,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Investor opportunity! Located in an "X" flood zone! -2 bed/1 bath shotgun-style home offering strong potential for renovation. Property is being sold as-is. Exterior condition reflects deferred maintenance, creating a value- add opportunity. Schedule your tour today. Priced for Condition.

22. 1995-04-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$5,534
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $1,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Harvey

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #13980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harvey, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• City population: 39,578
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 39,578
• Household income: $62,416
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1992.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.82%
• Current HPI: 156.1052
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.88%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+1560.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $83,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $83,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $99,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $114,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $114,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-31 Listed $130,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-31 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $599 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.