2945 W Lucas Dr · Beaumont, TX 77706

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1962 0.27 ac lot Est $188k · 42% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute home is ready for its new owner! Lovely wood floors fresh paint. Great location makes it an ideal home for investment or owner use. Stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, updated bathrooms. 2 bedrooms and office down with one bath and 1 loft bedroom upstairs with its full bathroom. New HVAC, New windows. Can be a great rental or owner use. Inside utility room. Huge yard! This home did not flood in Harvey or Imelda. Make your appointment today!!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Roof replacement
• West end location

Tags

• WEST END LOCATION
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0.27-acre lot

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air conditioning; Electric and natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.74%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,280
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4080 Diane Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,687 (+8%)	3mo	$154,900	$92	71
2705 W Lucas Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+14%)	12mo	$147,950	$83	61
4750 Coolidge St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-6%)	8mo	$249,900	$169	60
2149 Briarcliff Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,584 (+1%)	23mo	$195,000	$123	51
3025 19th St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,440 (-8%)	11mo	$130,000	$90	43
4710 Arthur Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+15%)	23mo	$215,000	$120	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,636
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $19,078
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77706

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,473/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $409	+0% $378	+5% $347	+10% $316
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $314	+0% $378	+5% $443	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $406	base $378	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2995 Wier Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,800	$1.24	15d	1	0.21mi
3155 French Rd Beaumont, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	905	$999	$1.10	15d	9	0.37mi
3825 Hyde Park Row Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,550	$1.22	45d	1	0.52mi
3910 Treadway Rd Beaumont, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1019	$1,849	$1.81	15d	10	0.60mi
4695 Collier St #8 Beaumont, TX	2.0	1.5	1121	$1,150	$1.03	45d	1	0.79mi
3925 Crow Rd Unit 49 Beaumont, TX	2.0	1.5	1306	$1,325	$1.01	45d	1	0.79mi
3995 Crow Rd Unit 201 Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.0	1162	$1,550	$1.33	45d	1	0.80mi
3910 Baldwin St Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	24d	1	0.96mi
4325 Woodlawn St Beaumont, TX	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,000	$0.87	15d	1	0.99mi
3085 S Willowood Ln Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1533	$1,400	$0.91	15d	1	1.00mi
3435 Kenwood Dr Beaumont, TX	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.00mi
3450 Durwood Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,195	$1.12	45d	1	1.01mi
5680 Shivers Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	24d	1	1.31mi
440 N Circuit Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,150	$1.10	24d	1	1.35mi
1620 Wellington Pl #903 Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.5	1215	$1,750	$1.44	45d	1	1.40mi
5340 Bettes Ln Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.5	1496	$1,575	$1.05	45d	1	1.41mi
2570 Sweetgum Ln Beaumont, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	876	$1,599	$1.82	15d	15	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $109,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $114,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    listing id $125,000 Active 1 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2022-05-31
    soldstatus 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Super cute home is ready for its new owner! Lovely wood floors fresh paint. Great location makes it an ideal home for investment or owner use. Stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, updated bathrooms. 2 bedrooms and office down with one bath and 1 loft bedroom upstairs with its full bathroom. New HVAC, New windows. Can be a great rental or owner use. Inside utility room. Huge yard! This home did not flood in Harvey or Imelda. Make your appointment today!!

20. 2022-05-15
    listed $145,000 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Super cute home is ready for its new owner! Lovely wood floors fresh paint. Great location makes it an ideal home for investment or owner use. Stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, updated bathrooms. 2 bedrooms and office down with one bath and 1 loft bedroom upstairs with its full bathroom. New HVAC, New windows. Can be a great rental or owner use. Inside utility room. Huge yard! This home did not flood in Harvey or Imelda. Make your appointment today!!

21. 2005-06-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,473 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,473 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$3,473
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $3,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809670
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,683
• Composite: 15.43/100
• National rank: #9316
• State rank: #789 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beaumont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #13710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beaumont, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 125,901
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,393
• Household income: $73,185
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1299.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.53%
• Current HPI: 159.4053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2022-05-15 Listed $145,000 BBOR
• 2005-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,473 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.