2246 Asa Creek Rd · Paintsville, KY 41222

$160,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · Other public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1999 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath double wide with permanent foundation. Home features an open floor plan and spacious layout with fireplace. Two covered porches and a deck for outside entertainment or relaxing. Setting on a 1.5 acre level lot with room for gardening. Included is a 2 car recently built carport and 3 storage buildings. If you like to bike or walk you are just minutes from the Dawkins Trail. Schedule a showing soon.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered porches
• Level lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• FIREPLACE
• COVERED PORCHES
• DECK
• LEVEL LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport present
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Paintsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#117 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 338 students, 69% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $160k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,050 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-29,715
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-30,844
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41222

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $149,582

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-14	+0% $-59	+5% $-104	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-107	+0% $-59	+5% $-11	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-18	base $-59	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $160,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath double wide with permanent foundation. Home features an open floor plan and spacious layout with fireplace. Two covered porches and a deck for outside entertainment or relaxing. Setting on a 1.5 acre level lot with room for gardening. Included is a 2 car recently built carport and 3 storage buildings. If you like to bike or walk you are just minutes from the Dawkins Trail. Schedule a showing soon.

18. 2026-05-15
    price $160,000

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath double wide with permanent foundation. Home features an open floor plan and spacious layout with fireplace. Two covered porches and a deck for outside entertainment or relaxing. Setting on a 1.5 acre level lot with room for gardening. Included is a 2 car recently built carport and 3 storage buildings. If you like to bike or walk you are just minutes from the Dawkins Trail. Schedule a showing soon.

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $165,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath double wide with permanent foundation. Home features an open floor plan and spacious layout with fireplace. Two covered porches and a deck for outside entertainment or relaxing. Setting on a 1.5 acre level lot with room for gardening. Included is a 2 car recently built carport and 3 storage buildings. If you like to bike or walk you are just minutes from the Dawkins Trail. Schedule a showing soon.

20. 2026-03-30
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath double wide with permanent foundation. Home features an open floor plan and spacious layout with fireplace. Two covered porches and a deck for outside entertainment or relaxing. Setting on a 1.5 acre level lot with room for gardening. Included is a 2 car recently built carport and 3 storage buildings. If you like to bike or walk you are just minutes from the Dawkins Trail. Schedule a showing soon.

21. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on 1.5 acre lot. Over 2000 sq ft of living space. Large level lot with two storage buildings and lots of room for garden.

22. 2021-11-22
    listed $49,500 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on 1.5 acre lot. Over 2000 sq ft of living space. Large level lot with two storage buildings and lots of room for garden.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$764/yr (+$64/mo · 124.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$846
• After-tax cash flow: $138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 2103060
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $34,508
• Composite: 25.49/100
• National rank: #7441
• State rank: #103 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paintsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #5546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,495
• Population (ZIP): 2,655

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Current HPI: 190.8111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+223.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $160,000 EKAR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $165,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $165,000 EKAR
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 EKAR
• 2021-11-22 Listed $49,500 EKAR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.