543 Cumana Circlle · Union City, CA 94587

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 1976 $170/sqft · 15% above area Est $214k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare 3 bedroom mobile home in the Tropics features: opposite end bedrooms; 2 full baths; laminate flooring in most rooms; dining area with built in hutch; vaulted ceilings in living room and family room; cul-de-sac location near guest parking; some updating throughout.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1976
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool is in-ground and gas-heated; spa is heated
• HOA & community: The Tropics community; Community clubhouse, fitness center, pool and heated spa; Greenbelt and park areas; Game room, rec room with fireplace; Guest parking and RV storage; Park interview required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; restrictions, number/size limits, approval required); Utilities metered individually

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport with space for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in-park mobile home (double-wide); Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Crawl-space foundation
• Exterior features: Front, side and back yards; Yard space with storage; Enclosed porch with awning(s); Porch; Shed(s); Located on a level cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Ice maker hookup; Laminate counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with solid-surface counters, stall shower and window; Other bath(s) updated with tile, stall shower and window
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dining area; Kitchen open to family room; Breakfast bar; Built-in storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220V outlet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $245k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 1.8% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $245,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.80%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,848
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 14.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
167 Kona Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$247,000	$172	85
269 Oahu	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	85
324 Waikiki Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	84
17 Palm Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	79
418 Fiji Cir #418	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$313,333	$233	78
179 Kona Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$260,000	$193	77
198 Hawaii Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	10mo	$185,000	$126	77
51 Palm Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	76
259 Molokai Cir #259	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$180,000	$134	76
328 Waikiki Cir	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	74
226 Hula Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$205,000	$153	65
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $41,561
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $146,250
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,415	-5% $1,331	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,077
Rent	-10% $952	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,393	+10% $1,540
Rate	-1.0pp $1,369	-0.5pp $1,308	base $1,246	+0.5pp $1,183	+1.0pp $1,118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	4d	1	0.43mi
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	19d	1	0.66mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	16d	1	0.72mi
3716 Harlequin Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1855	$4,500	$2.43	44d	1	0.73mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	2d	1	0.77mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	19d	1	0.78mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	44d	1	0.83mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	25d	1	0.95mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	3d	13	1.11mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	3d	1	1.11mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	21d	1	1.13mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	4d	1	1.14mi
2500 Medallion Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	781	$3,195	$4.09	2d	9	1.14mi
3168 Courthouse Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1207	$4,200	$3.48	16d	1	1.34mi
4163 Rainbow Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	3.0	1474	$3,695	$2.51	6d	1	1.36mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	25d	1	1.39mi
3154 Sugar Beet Way Union City, CA	4.0	2.0	1412	$4,150	$2.94	0d	1	1.40mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	2d	1	1.43mi
4806 Balthazar Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.0	1755	$4,250	$2.42	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $245,000 Active 474-char remark
2. 2020-12-08
   soldstatus $190,000 Sold 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Rare 3 bedroom mobile home in the Tropics features: opposite end bedrooms; 2 full baths; laminate flooring in most rooms; dining area with built in hutch; vaulted ceilings in living room and family room; cul-de-sac location near guest parking; some updating throughout.

3. 2020-11-06
   status Pending 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Rare 3 bedroom mobile home in the Tropics features: opposite end bedrooms; 2 full baths; laminate flooring in most rooms; dining area with built in hutch; vaulted ceilings in living room and family room; cul-de-sac location near guest parking; some updating throughout.

4. 2020-10-29
   listed $188,000 New 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Rare 3 bedroom mobile home in the Tropics features: opposite end bedrooms; 2 full baths; laminate flooring in most rooms; dining area with built in hutch; vaulted ceilings in living room and family room; cul-de-sac location near guest parking; some updating throughout.

5. 2016-08-16
   historical
6. 2016-08-09
   listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,572
• − Management: −$3,572
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $11,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,820
• After-tax cash flow: $12,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+30.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $245,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-12-08 Sold (MLS) $190,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-11-06 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-10-29 Listed $188,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-08-09 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR