328 Blue Goose Ln · Bogue, NC 28570

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1985 6,970 sqft lot Est $162k · 21% over $108/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

''MOTIVATED SELLER'' 1/251 undivided interest in GCL MHP (call agent for more detail) Goose Creek Landing, one of the most sought after gated neighborhoods on the Crystal Coast--a golf cart friendly neighborhood where neighbors become friends and every day feels like a vacation. 2bed / 1 & 1/2 bath (all bath/shower plumbing in place) mobile home. Updated kitchen and master bath. Freshly painted throughout. Kitchen, bed and bath LVP flooring. 12x 12 wired shed with lean to for storage of golf cart, bikes, etc. Community amenities include 2 boat ramps, large dock with cleaning stations and sitting areas. Playground, pool, covered pavilion area with tables, & curt

Key facts

• Master bath
• Community amenities
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOODS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MASTER BATH
• WIRED SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($103k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#311 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #88 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carteret County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,494/mo this rent would consume 213% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 189.34%
• DSCR: 9.42
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,700
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 Blue Goose Ln	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	913 (-1%)	1mo	$160,000	$175	90
116 Blue Goose Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	938 (+2%)	15mo	$300,000	$320	70
151 Bogue Forest Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,044 (+13%)	17mo	$158,500	$152	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.47×
• Total profit: $516,972
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.20×
• Total profit: $1,156,895
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,624
• Net cashflow: $8,611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-20
   price $194,900
4. 2025-12-22
   price $224,900
5. 2025-11-11
   price $244,900
6. 2025-10-30
   price $259,900
7. 2025-10-21
   price $264,900
8. 2025-10-17
   price $294,900
9. 2025-09-24
   listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 177.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,994
• − Management: −$11,994
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $106,502
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,561
• After-tax cash flow: $77,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bogue

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #13024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $194,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $224,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $244,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $259,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $264,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $294,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $299,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $575 · +231.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.