34916 Blue Starling St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33541

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2021 Good condition 127 ac lot 1-car garage $97/sqft · 31% below area Est $216k · 31% under · waterfront $2/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect Florida retreat! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom move-in ready mobile home is nestled in a vibrant 55+ community and has everything you need to start living the good life from day one. The updated kitchen and bathrooms give the home a fresh, modern feel while maintaining the warmth and comfort you'd expect. A convenient carport adds ease to your daily routine, and with access to fantastic community amenities including a sparkling pool and clubhouse, there's always something to enjoy right outside your door. Whether you're looking to downsize, retire in style, or simply embrace the laid-back Florida lifestyle, this turnkey gem checks every box.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Carport
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CLUBHOUSE
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New River Elementary School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 721 students, 57% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1141 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,305
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -30.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4618 Newcomb Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-12%)	8mo	$115,000	$84	63
34911 Buck Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-4%)	14mo	$120,000	$80	56
4050 Carefree Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-7%)	1mo	$160,000	$111	49
34620 Dustin Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	16mo	$278,000	$184	48
34914 Fun Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-2%)	14mo	$100,000	$66	47
35021 Mcculloughs Leap	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-13%)	5mo	$167,000	$124	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,679
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,388
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $174,900 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 1141
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$2
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $276	+0% $224	+5% $172	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $161	+0% $224	+5% $287	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $262	base $224	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	59d	1	0.17mi
34800 Minnow Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,799	$1.24	7d	1	0.19mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	54d	1	0.21mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	51d	1	0.23mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	68d	1	0.28mi
34801 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,000	$1.27	41d	1	0.28mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	67d	1	0.29mi
5215 Lochmead Ter Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,700	$1.36	17d	1	0.44mi
5224 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,150	$1.03	73d	1	0.46mi
5310 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,020	$0.97	12d	1	0.47mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	52d	1	0.51mi
34902 Teeview Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,200	$1.29	21d	1	0.64mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	73d	1	0.79mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	73d	1	0.79mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	73d	1	0.80mi
34218 Cinder Way Unit 34218 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,950	$1.24	48d	1	0.84mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,100	$1.27	18d	1	0.84mi
4306 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,050	$1.24	18d	1	0.84mi
34186 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,195	$1.33	9d	1	0.86mi
34186 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,195	$1.33	15d	1	0.86mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	73d	1	0.86mi
4383 Paraglider Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,999	$1.21	21d	1	0.91mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1314	$2,424	$1.84	7d	46	1.02mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,201	$2.13	7d	29	1.09mi
35227 Brienne St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,940	$1.29	7d	1	1.09mi
36618 Goffaux Loop Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,115	$1.15	67d	1	1.13mi
5137 Benjamin Eric St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,050	$1.25	48d	1	1.13mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	53d	1	1.13mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	54d	1	1.13mi
5686 Barakat Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,300	$1.26	73d	1	1.14mi
5686 Barakat Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	64d	1	1.14mi
36144 Risa Michele St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,950	$1.19	39d	1	1.25mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	9d	40	1.26mi
34953 Meadow Reach Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2188	$2,319	$1.06	7d	1	1.27mi
35138 Meadow Reach Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,500	$1.59	73d	1	1.30mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,203	$2.28	7d	23	1.34mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	60d	1	1.34mi
4111 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	1216	$2,195	$1.81	52d	1	1.44mi
34835 Redding Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	51d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 127.2 acresLiving area reported as 1,550 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease amount $830
• HOA & community: HOA: MyMHCommunity (annual fee $35 / ~$2.92 monthly)Senior communityCats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/High‑speed internet availableElectricity connectedNatural gas connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide homeSingle-storySouth-facing
• Construction: Block and metal frame constructionShingle roofBlock foundationBuilt on one level
• Exterior features: StorageConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansThermostat
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

HOA detail $2/mo · $24/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,999 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-28
   listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,750–$23,250 screening

This move-in ready manufactured home in a vibrant 55+ community offers a modern kitchen, updated bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. With minor cosmetic improvements, it can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal and functionality for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New River Elementary School F FL #1,560/2,144 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 127.2 acresLiving area reported as 1,550 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease amount $830
• HOA & community: HOA: MyMHCommunity (annual fee $35 / ~$2.92 monthly)Senior communityCats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/High‑speed internet availableElectricity connectedNatural gas connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide homeSingle-storySouth-facing
• Construction: Block and metal frame constructionShingle roofBlock foundationBuilt on one level
• Exterior features: StorageConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansThermostat
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid