823 Elkan Dr · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$125,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1979 3,494 sqft lot Est $117k · 7% over $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. LOOK AT THIS PRICE-EXCELLENT CONDITION!!! Welcome to Leisure Lake. .. and Yes, it lives up to its name! This beautifully redone 2-bedroom, 1 bath home has been completely transformed from top to bottom and feels like new the moment you walk in. Step inside and it feels fresh, polished, and effortlessly put together. .. like a home that finally got it glow-up and never looked back. Mornings here feel easy. You wake up, pour your coffee, and wander over to the beautiful bay windows, where the light comes in soft and golden, like it's got nowhere else to be. No rush, no noise behind you. .. just quiet space and a little breathing room to start your day

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• New water heater
• A/c six years old

Tags

• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW WINDOWS
• ROOF SEVEN YEARS YOUNG
• A/C SIX YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No CDD; Homestead not indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $52; total annual fees listed as $624
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $52 (buyer approval required); Association requires approval; Community has street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; BB/HS Internet available; Phone available; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open interior with 4 total rooms; Storage available
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $125k implies a 762% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.92%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,760
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
835 Oakwood Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	756 (-10%)	18mo	$105,000	$139	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,262
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $28,226
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,108/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $585	-5% $550	+0% $515	+5% $479	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $443	+0% $515	+5% $586	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $546	base $515	+0.5pp $482	+1.0pp $449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	3d	6	0.60mi
707 E Spruce St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	11d	1	0.63mi
1113 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	5d	1	0.89mi
650 E Tarpon Ave Unit C1 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	8d	1	0.96mi
623 Beckett Way Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	4d	1	1.07mi
673 Haven Pl #673 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	15d	1	1.11mi
501 Saint Michaels Way Unit 520 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	25d	1	1.13mi
640 Haven Pl #640 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	8d	1	1.14mi
524 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	25d	1	1.20mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	25d	1	1.22mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	25d	1	1.32mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	25d	1	1.33mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	25d	1	1.36mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	15d	1	1.36mi
542 Division St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	629	$1,400	$2.23	12d	1	1.41mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $125,000
3. 2026-03-26
   price $130,000
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $135,000 Active
5. 2007-10-19
   listed $79,000
6. 1987-05-01
   soldstatus $14,500
7. 1986-05-01
   soldstatus $1,170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,108
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $5,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-19 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,108 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.