410 Collins Rd · Richmond, TX 77469

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2014 5,018 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home built in 2014, newer feel compared to homes in the area. Fresh interior paint and updated doors create a move-in-ready space. Relax on the front porch or unwind on the side porch and covered back patio-great outdoor living. The home features a functional split-bath layout with dual vanities and two entryways for convenient multiple users. No carpet throughout, making maintenance easy. The home includes an in-house utility room, and a washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. A small storage area in the backyard provides extra space for tools. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a comfortable, low-maintenance home.

Key facts

• Split-bath layout
• Dual vanities
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SIDE PORCH
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPLIT-BATH LAYOUT
• DUAL VANITIES
• IN-HOUSE UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,031
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Clay St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,051 (-1%)	3mo	$249,000	$237	72
508 Center St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+7%)	24mo	$220,000	$195	55
1105 Yorktown St	0.67mi	3/1.0	988 (-6%)	1mo	$164,900	$167	53
1716 Carver Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+13%)	22mo	$160,000	$134	50
806 Center St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	22mo	$184,900	$161	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,384
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,080
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $274	+0% $224	+5% $175	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $152	+0% $224	+5% $297	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $269	base $224	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Fort St Unit 1108 Richmond, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	0.59mi
1217 Westwood Dr Unit 424 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,129	$1.25	6d	1	0.83mi
1217 Westwood Dr Unit 1274 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,121	$1.25	3d	1	0.83mi
4932 Vancouver Blvd Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$3,500	$2.65	13d	1	1.08mi
4719 Reading Rd Rosenberg, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,450	$1.77	6d	6	1.33mi
2010 Thompson Rd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$1,100	$1.45	4d	3	1.37mi
4720 Reading Rd Rosenberg, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,422	$1.53	2d	15	1.42mi
4726 Reading Rd Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,275	$1.20	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Pending 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    price $174,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $179,000 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Charming single-story home built in 2014, newer feel compared to homes in the area. Fresh interior paint and updated doors create a move-in-ready space. Relax on the front porch or unwind on the side porch and covered back patio-great outdoor living. The home features a functional split-bath layout with dual vanities and two entryways for convenient multiple users. No carpet throughout, making maintenance easy. The home includes an in-house utility room, and a washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. A small storage area in the backyard provides extra space for tools. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a comfortable, low-maintenance home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$87
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $179,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.