3102 N Water St · Bay City, MI 48708

$69,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1900 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $70k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.06%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,346
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Marshall	0.28mi	5/1.5	2,100 (+10%)	23mo	$107,000	$51	50
2176 4th St	0.75mi	5/2.5	2,074 (+8%)	3mo	$184,900	$89	42
2221 Carroll Rd	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,773 (-7%)	6mo	$300,000	$169	42
1406 Park Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,806 (-6%)	23mo	$180,000	$100	42
1308 Cornell St	0.57mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,678 (-12%)	10mo	$145,000	$86	40
808 Thompson St	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,783 (-7%)	11mo	$240,000	$135	34
2172 2nd St	0.61mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,076 (+8%)	22mo	$157,000	$76	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $31,378
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $82,456
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $689	+0% $670	+5% $650	+10% $630
Rent	-10% $550	-5% $610	+0% $670	+5% $730	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $705	-0.5pp $687	base $670	+0.5pp $652	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

2. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

3. 2026-03-13
   price $69,900 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

4. 2026-03-13
   price $69,900

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

5. 2026-02-21
   price $79,900 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

6. 2026-02-20
   price $79,900
7. 2026-02-04
   listed $89,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

8. 2026-02-04
   listed $89,000 Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Very spacious 2-story, 3 bedroom home situated on a generous size lot in Bay City! With some TLC, this home has tons of potential and presents the perfect opportunity to build equity with some elbow grease and updates, and the bonus rooms offer potential for additional bedrooms.

9. 2018-06-29
   soldstatus $23,500 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   PROPERTY HAS BEEN VACANT FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND WAS PLANNED FOR A 2 UNIT BUT NEVER COMPLETED. THIS IS AN INVESTORS DREAM PROJECT! THERE ARE AREAS TO REMOVE WALLS OR A WALL TO TURN BACK INTO A SPACIOUS SINGLE FAMILY HOME. ONLY 1 KITCHEN AND 1 BATHROOM BUT COULD HAVE 5 BEDROOMS POSSIBLY. 2ND FLOOR LARGE CLOSET COULD BE A 2ND BATHROOM. BASEMENT IS A SHORT MICHIGAN STYLE FOR STORAGE. GENEROUS ROOM SIZES, LARGE BACK YARD, PLENTY OF OPTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERSON WITH A VISION AND THE ABILITY FOR REMODELING.

10. 2018-05-02
    listed $24,900 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    PROPERTY HAS BEEN VACANT FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND WAS PLANNED FOR A 2 UNIT BUT NEVER COMPLETED. THIS IS AN INVESTORS DREAM PROJECT! THERE ARE AREAS TO REMOVE WALLS OR A WALL TO TURN BACK INTO A SPACIOUS SINGLE FAMILY HOME. ONLY 1 KITCHEN AND 1 BATHROOM BUT COULD HAVE 5 BEDROOMS POSSIBLY. 2ND FLOOR LARGE CLOSET COULD BE A 2ND BATHROOM. BASEMENT IS A SHORT MICHIGAN STYLE FOR STORAGE. GENEROUS ROOM SIZES, LARGE BACK YARD, PLENTY OF OPTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERSON WITH A VISION AND THE ABILITY FOR REMODELING.

11. 2017-12-12
    historical
12. 2017-07-05
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $6,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-04 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-06-29 Sold (MLS) $23,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-02 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-05 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.