520 Ryan Rd · Sour Lake, TX 77659

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 2000 $147/sqft · 14% below area Est $280k · 14% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home in Sour Lake offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and spans 1,632 sqft. Located in the desirable Hardin Jefferson School District, this property is perfect for families looking for a spacious and comfortable living space. The home features a cozy layout with ample natural light, a well- appointed kitchen and a lovely outdoor area for relaxation and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your new home!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 285 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($605/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.8% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sour Lake El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 767 students, 42% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,416
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -14.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1115 Old Beaumont Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	21mo	$279,500	$185	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,605
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-26,563
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77659

• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,625/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $118	+0% $50	+5% $-18	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-38	+0% $50	+5% $139	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $111	base $50	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Holly Trl Sour Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,250	$1.24	23d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    price $240,000 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This charming home in Sour Lake offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and spans 1,632 sqft. Located in the desirable Hardin Jefferson School District, this property is perfect for families looking for a spacious and comfortable living space. The home features a cozy layout with ample natural light, a well- appointed kitchen and a lovely outdoor area for relaxation and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your new home!

17. 2025-09-09
    listed $260,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This charming home in Sour Lake offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and spans 1,632 sqft. Located in the desirable Hardin Jefferson School District, this property is perfect for families looking for a spacious and comfortable living space. The home features a cozy layout with ample natural light, a well- appointed kitchen and a lovely outdoor area for relaxation and entertainment. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your new home!

18. 2025-08-14
    price $270,000
19. 2025-04-01
    price $280,000
20. 2024-07-12
    price $289,000
21. 2024-04-18
    price $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,625 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,625
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $1,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822410
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,336
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2682
• State rank: #135 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sour Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #7687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sour Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,847

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.72%
• Current HPI: 184.5266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $240,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-09 Listed $260,000 BBOR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $270,000 BBOR
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $280,000 BBOR
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $289,000 BBOR
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $299,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,625 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.