8477 Princeton St · Lumberton, TX 77657

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2019 $113/sqft · 23% below area Est $192k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHAT A GREAT FIRST TIME HOME OR INVESTMENT THIS WOULD BE! Fresh paint and a few updates are being done

Key facts

• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $149k implies a 1390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.03%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,280
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -22.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8483 Wingfield Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	3mo	$225,000	$156	68
8801 Mitchell Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+2%)	17mo	$200,000	$148	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,527
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $36,665
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,538/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $460	+0% $418	+5% $376	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $344	+0% $418	+5% $492	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $456	base $418	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	24d	1	0.06mi
9006 Duke St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	44d	1	0.12mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	24d	1	0.50mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.50mi
110 Azaelia Dr Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	14d	1	0.89mi
9984 Golden Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,575	$1.57	14d	1	1.10mi
357 S Main St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$895	$0.74	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $145,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   price $145,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $146,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $146,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $146,500 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $146,500 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    WHAT A GREAT FIRST TIME HOME OR INVESTMENT THIS WOULD BE! Fresh paint and a few updates are being done

14. 2026-03-05
    listed $149,000 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    WHAT A GREAT FIRST TIME HOME OR INVESTMENT THIS WOULD BE! Fresh paint and a few updates are being done

15. 2024-03-18
    price $150,000
16. 2024-02-21
    price $155,000
17. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus
18. 2019-10-17
    soldstatus
19. 2019-07-22
    soldstatus
20. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus
21. 2005-12-09
    soldstatus
22. 2003-01-31
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,538 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,538
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$680
• After-tax cash flow: $4,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1365.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $146,500 BBOR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $149,000 BBOR
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $150,000 BBOR
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $155,000 BBOR
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,538 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.