612 S Aquilla St · Itasca, TX 76055

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2007 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity meets value in growing Itasca, TX! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.40-acre lot—offering something increasingly hard to find in the area: room to breathe. With 1,120 square feet of functional living space, this property is a great fit for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable option without sacrificing outdoor space. Step inside to find recent updates that make this home move-in ready, including updated flooring, a refreshed kitchen, and updated bathrooms—giving you the modern touches you want without the higher price tag of new construction. Located in a community where other homes are on much smaller lots, this property

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($829/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,449 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $96,984
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $282,141
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,075/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $117	+0% $69	+5% $21	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $9	+0% $69	+5% $129	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $112	base $69	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	44d	1	0.26mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	44d	1	0.35mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	12d	1	0.36mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	44d	1	0.43mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	44d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2026-02-24
   soldstatus
5. 2015-10-19
   soldstatus
6. 2000-01-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,075
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,075 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.