819 S Comstock Ave #13 · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1970 $52/sqft · 118% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 672 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. This home feels spacious for its size, featuring a clean and mostly updated interior with a bright kitchen that includes a gas stove. Also has an enclosed porch for extra storage. Enjoy the convenience of single-level living. A great opportunity for affordable, low-maintenance living! All ages park with water, sewer, garbage included in the monthly $650 space rent.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Gas stove
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.8% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.17%
• DSCR: 5.37
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,058
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: 117.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 S Comstock Ave #13	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	0mo	$17,000	$25	100
819 S Comstock Ave Spc 68	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	12mo	$30,000	$45	90
1050 W Central Ave Unit 10	0.60mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	20mo	$39,000	$58	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $45,387
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.74×
• Total profit: $105,263
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $110/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $812	+0% $802	+5% $792	+10% $782
Rent	-10% $701	-5% $751	+0% $802	+5% $852	+10% $903
Rate	-1.0pp $819	-0.5pp $811	base $802	+0.5pp $793	+1.0pp $783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $35,000 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-04-25
   status Active 461-char remark

   Show marketing remark (461 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 672 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. This home feels spacious for its size, featuring a clean and mostly updated interior with a bright kitchen that includes a gas stove. Also has an enclosed porch for extra storage. Enjoy the convenience of single-level living. A great opportunity for affordable, low-maintenance living! All ages park with water, sewer, garbage included in the monthly $650 space rent.

7. 2025-09-29
   listed $35,000 Active 461-char remark

   Show marketing remark (461 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 672 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. This home feels spacious for its size, featuring a clean and mostly updated interior with a bright kitchen that includes a gas stove. Also has an enclosed porch for extra storage. Enjoy the convenience of single-level living. A great opportunity for affordable, low-maintenance living! All ages park with water, sewer, garbage included in the monthly $650 space rent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 207.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$110
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $9,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $7,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $35,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.