14613 Robinson Ave · Clearlake, CA 95422

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 296 Days on market

Built 1954 4,792 sqft lot $122/sqft · 41% below area Est $188k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project to invest in ? Here you go. Priced well. This 2 bedroom 1 bath with nice size screened in room has so much potential. Home sits on nice level flat lot . Back yard has small wood shed and on side of home has metal shed. Nice patio in front. Home is close to lake for fishing and enjoyment.

Key facts

• Wood shed
• Metal shed
• Level flat lot

Tags

• SCREENED IN ROOM
• LEVEL FLAT LOT
• WOOD SHED
• METAL SHED
• PATIO
• CLOSE TO LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in Clearlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#549 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $110k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,704
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -41.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14748 Uhl	0.22mi	2/1.0	831 (-8%)	6mo	$199,900	$241	71
4064 Carrol Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	832 (-8%)	13mo	$172,000	$207	62
3628 Sycamore	0.47mi	2/1.5	960 (+6%)	6mo	$205,000	$214	61
3925 Laddell Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	768 (-15%)	9mo	$112,000	$146	59
4331 Sunset Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	876 (-3%)	12mo	$235,000	$268	56
4255 Wilder Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	932 (+3%)	20mo	$120,000	$129	54
3641 Sycamore St	0.45mi	2/1.0	966 (+7%)	20mo	$220,000	$228	51
3925 Vista Robles Way	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	15mo	$213,000	$213	49
14370 Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+14%)	10mo	$219,000	$212	48
3660 Buckeye St	0.42mi	2/1.0	992 (+10%)	21mo	$70,000	$71	47
3956 Schultz Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+13%)	18mo	$210,000	$206	46
14920 Lelabelle Blvd	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (+3%)	21mo	$195,000	$210	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,245
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $20,394
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95422

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14531 Emory Ave Clearlake, CA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	21d	1	0.15mi
14083 Lakeshore Dr Clearlake, CA	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,450	$1.35	21d	1	0.62mi
14984 Putnam Ln Clearlake, CA	2.0	1.5	819	$1,500	$1.83	44d	1	0.64mi
14028 Konocti St Unit 1 Clearlake, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	44d	1	0.88mi
5735 Old Highway 53 Unit 07 Cottage (Park Owned) Clearlake, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	21d	1	0.91mi
5935 Old Highway 53 Unit D Clearlake, CA	2.0	2.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	21d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 276 DOM
17. 2025-08-27
    listed $115,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Looking for a project to invest in ? Here you go. Priced well. This 2 bedroom 1 bath with nice size screened in room has so much potential. Home sits on nice level flat lot . Back yard has small wood shed and on side of home has metal shed. Nice patio in front. Home is close to lake for fishing and enjoyment.

18. 1994-08-31
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $1,488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #18284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,101

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.47%
• Current HPI: 248.654
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+318.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-27 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,295 · +155.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.