85 Lochsa Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$68,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1999 6,534 sqft lot $76/sqft · 37% below area Est $108k · 37% under $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market, this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath 1999 camper plus addition is perfect for your lake getaway!! Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the large, beautiful front deck. Recently renovated with new siding and being sold fully furnished, this property is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the River Ridge lifestyle. A 1995 gas golf cart conveys with the sale! The roof is approximately 12-15 years old, and the storage shed was added about 4 years ago. Everything conveys inside, except a few personal belongings. The only thing missing, is you! River Ridge offers a wide variety of amenities including a 9-hole golf course, swimming pool, boat ramp, tennis and basketball courts, community pavilion, and so much more! Call your favorite Realtor today to set up your very own private showing! Please note: Entry into River Ridge requires a licensed VA Realtor.

Key facts

• New siding
• Storage shed
• Gas golf cart

Tags

• LARGE FRONT DECK
• NEW SIDING
• FULLY FURNISHED
• GAS GOLF CART
• STORAGE SHED
• 9-HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($470 loan paydown + $966 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.70%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,408
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: -37.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Lochsa Trl	0.00mi	3/1.0	900 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$67	100
145 Fox Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-4%)	10mo	$86,000	$100	57
75 Elkhorn Trl	0.63mi	3/1.5	920 (+2%)	10mo	$107,000	$116	56
127 & 97 Feather Trl	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+9%)	1mo	$127,400	$130	48
18 Huron Trl	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	787 (-13%)	16mo	$135,000	$172	46
58 Dismal Trl	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	850 (-6%)	9mo	$86,000	$101	40
284 Feather Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,034 (+15%)	12mo	$95,000	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $54,992
• Equity at exit: $24,714

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $129,967
• Equity at exit: $34,036

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $680

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   Back on the market, this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath 1999 camper plus addition is perfect for your lake getaway!! Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the large, beautiful front deck. Recently renovated with new siding and being sold fully furnished, this property is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the River Ridge lifestyle. A 1995 gas golf cart conveys with the sale! The roof is approximately 12-15 years old, and the storage shed was added about 4 years ago. Everything conveys inside, except a few personal belongings. The only thing missing, is you! River Ridge offers a wide variety of amenities including a 9-hole golf course, swimming pool, boat ramp, tennis and basketball courts, community pavilion, and so much more! Call your favorite Realtor today to set up your very own private showing! Please note: Entry into River Ridge requires a licensed VA Realtor.

2. 2026-04-07
   price $68,000 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   Back on the market, this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath 1999 camper plus addition is perfect for your lake getaway!! Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the large, beautiful front deck. Recently renovated with new siding and being sold fully furnished, this property is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the River Ridge lifestyle. A 1995 gas golf cart conveys with the sale! The roof is approximately 12-15 years old, and the storage shed was added about 4 years ago. Everything conveys inside, except a few personal belongings. The only thing missing, is you! River Ridge offers a wide variety of amenities including a 9-hole golf course, swimming pool, boat ramp, tennis and basketball courts, community pavilion, and so much more! Call your favorite Realtor today to set up your very own private showing! Please note: Entry into River Ridge requires a licensed VA Realtor.

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $74,000 Active 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   Back on the market, this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath 1999 camper plus addition is perfect for your lake getaway!! Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the large, beautiful front deck. Recently renovated with new siding and being sold fully furnished, this property is ready for you to move in and start enjoying the River Ridge lifestyle. A 1995 gas golf cart conveys with the sale! The roof is approximately 12-15 years old, and the storage shed was added about 4 years ago. Everything conveys inside, except a few personal belongings. The only thing missing, is you! River Ridge offers a wide variety of amenities including a 9-hole golf course, swimming pool, boat ramp, tennis and basketball courts, community pavilion, and so much more! Call your favorite Realtor today to set up your very own private showing! Please note: Entry into River Ridge requires a licensed VA Realtor.

4. 2025-10-17
   price $78,000
5. 2025-09-05
   price $88,000
6. 2025-07-21
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $9,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $7,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-28.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $68,000 RVLG
• 2026-03-17 Listed $74,000 RVLG
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $78,000 RVLG
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $88,000 RVLG
• 2025-07-21 Listed $95,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $40 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.