1860 Abercrombie Rd · Midway, FL 32563

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2024 0.26 ac lot Est $191k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Key Features: Bedrooms/Bathrooms: 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. MOVE-IN READY! Furniture negotiable! Layout: Functional single-story split floor plan. Condition: Modern 2024 construction, meticulously maintained, and an open floor plan. Outdoor Space: Generous quarter-acre lot with plenty of room for outdoor activities or future personalization. Location Highlights: Situated in the desirable Gulf Breeze area with convenient access to US-98, local schools, shopping, and nearby coastal amenities. Near beaches!! No HOA! Surrounded by beautiful homes! This would make an excellent short-term investment property.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Intermediate School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 813 students, 37% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Gulf Breeze High School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B, #66 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 1,978 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $285k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,839 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,848
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1761 Kell Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	7mo	$175,000	$140	62
1803 El Paso Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+9%)	13mo	$220,000	$150	54
5437 Maverick Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-11%)	16mo	$98,010	$82	49
5503 Stage Coach Trl	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-8%)	17mo	$175,000	$142	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,608
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,782
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $274,105

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $19	+0% $-62	+5% $-142	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-148	+0% $-62	+5% $25	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $11	base $-62	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	15d	1	0.22mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	0.37mi
1712 Bay Pine Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.44mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	25d	1	0.58mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	23d	1	0.75mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	15d	1	0.75mi
1889 Natures Way Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,850	$1.68	25d	1	0.80mi
5673 Stellarjay St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	23d	1	0.84mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	25d	1	0.87mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	15d	1	0.87mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	1.02mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	15d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 627-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $285,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+533.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $285,000 PARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $285,000 ECAR
• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $285,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $285,000 PARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $299,500 PARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,126 · +245.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.