9499 Brayton Dr #152 · Anchorage, AK 99507

$85,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 147 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition $71/sqft · 90% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 4BR, 1.5BA home with 1,200 sq ft, spacious kitchen and living room, new LVP flooring, remodeled baths, fresh paint, new furnace, stove, and washer. Located in one of South Anchorage's best trailer parks. Includes two large outdoor storage areas and a bonus room or 5th bedroom ready to be finished with materials included. Dining set, TV, and couch can stay. Schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• New furnace
• Spacious kitchen
• Bonus room

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHS
• NEW FURNACE
• OUTDOOR STORAGE AREAS
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.99%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,828
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 89.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9499 Brayton Dr #21	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$92,900	$77	89
9499 Brayton Dr #292	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	16mo	$87,000	$73	76
9499 Brayton Dr #8	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,159 (-3%)	18mo	$65,000	$56	74
9499 Brayton Dr #268	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (+1%)	22mo	$67,500	$56	69
9499 Brayton Dr #213	0.08mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$55,000	$46	68
9599 Brayton Dr #500	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-8%)	14mo	$74,000	$67	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $95,542
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $253,600
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,595	$2.22	14d	10	0.30mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	43d	1	0.98mi
2721 E 84th Ave Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.10mi
8124 Marsha Loop Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,700	$1.82	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-02-22
    status Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Move-in ready 4BR, 1.5BA home with 1,200 sq ft, spacious kitchen and living room, new LVP flooring, remodeled baths, fresh paint, new furnace, stove, and washer. Located in one of South Anchorage's best trailer parks. Includes two large outdoor storage areas and a bonus room or 5th bedroom ready to be finished with materials included. Dining set, TV, and couch can stay. Schedule a viewing today!

17. 2025-12-20
    status Pending 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Move-in ready 4BR, 1.5BA home with 1,200 sq ft, spacious kitchen and living room, new LVP flooring, remodeled baths, fresh paint, new furnace, stove, and washer. Located in one of South Anchorage's best trailer parks. Includes two large outdoor storage areas and a bonus room or 5th bedroom ready to be finished with materials included. Dining set, TV, and couch can stay. Schedule a viewing today!

18. 2025-11-19
    listed $85,000 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Move-in ready 4BR, 1.5BA home with 1,200 sq ft, spacious kitchen and living room, new LVP flooring, remodeled baths, fresh paint, new furnace, stove, and washer. Located in one of South Anchorage's best trailer parks. Includes two large outdoor storage areas and a bonus room or 5th bedroom ready to be finished with materials included. Dining set, TV, and couch can stay. Schedule a viewing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $18,550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,452
• After-tax cash flow: $14,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 4BR, 1.5BA home with 1,200 sq ft is in good condition with recent updates and improvements. It's located in a desirable trailer park with two large outdoor storage areas and a bonus room or 5th bedroom ready to be finished.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-12-20 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $85,000 AKMLS