43541 Dixie Dr · Paisley, FL 32767

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1989 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully redone 3 bedroom 2 bath home with luxury vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms have granite counter tops and the kitchen has new stainless steel appliances with a huge double door fridge and lots of counter space. The living room provides lots of space and is an open floor plan, with a fire place for cozy winter evenings. The home is well laid out to provide privacy to all as well as shared spaces to enjoy family. This home is on a large lot with beautiful trees.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fire place
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE DOOR FRIDGE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIRE PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (36.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (46.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (46.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#563 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $199k implies a 424% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,735 (46.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $82,258
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $262,615
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32767

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,511/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $126,711

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 649-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   price $199,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 550-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $205,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $220,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Beautifully redone 3 bedroom 2 bath home with luxury vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms have granite counter tops and the kitchen has new stainless steel appliances with a huge double door fridge and lots of counter space. The living room provides lots of space and is an open floor plan, with a fire place for cozy winter evenings. The home is well laid out to provide privacy to all as well as shared spaces to enjoy family. This home is on a large lot with beautiful trees.

18. 2026-01-28
    listed $230,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Beautifully redone 3 bedroom 2 bath home with luxury vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms have granite counter tops and the kitchen has new stainless steel appliances with a huge double door fridge and lots of counter space. The living room provides lots of space and is an open floor plan, with a fire place for cozy winter evenings. The home is well laid out to provide privacy to all as well as shared spaces to enjoy family. This home is on a large lot with beautiful trees.

19. 2023-11-29
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Mobile home is a tear down, do not try and enter mobile home. Value is in land only offering 1/3 of an acre . Drain field replaced about 7 years ago. Sold As-Is, cash only purchase

20. 2023-11-10
    status Pending 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Mobile home is a tear down, do not try and enter mobile home. Value is in land only offering 1/3 of an acre . Drain field replaced about 7 years ago. Sold As-Is, cash only purchase

21. 2023-10-30
    price $47,900 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Mobile home is a tear down, do not try and enter mobile home. Value is in land only offering 1/3 of an acre . Drain field replaced about 7 years ago. Sold As-Is, cash only purchase

22. 2023-08-25
    status Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Mobile home is a tear down, do not try and enter mobile home. Value is in land only offering 1/3 of an acre . Drain field replaced about 7 years ago. Sold As-Is, cash only purchase

23. 2023-08-18
    listed $49,900 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Mobile home is a tear down, do not try and enter mobile home. Value is in land only offering 1/3 of an acre . Drain field replaced about 7 years ago. Sold As-Is, cash only purchase

24. 1999-01-26
    soldstatus $48,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,511
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$8,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Paisley

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #563
• US rank: #10787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paisley, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.00%
• Current HPI: 372.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+355.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-18 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $48,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+44.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,511 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.