3618 Rockingham St · Houston, TX 77051

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2017 7,000 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wow, steal this beautifully updated 2017 built house - best value in the neighborhood!! 3 bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Nice open floor plan with new Luxury Vinyl flooring in living. Kitchen has LVT flooring, stainless steel appliances, new faucets and fixtures. Fresh paint and brand new frieze carpet

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry; Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Built in 2017; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level (11x11, 12x12, primary 14x12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,992/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,293
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 0.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3609 Dawson Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+12%)	2mo	$200,000	$121	78
9422 Cathedral Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$147	64
4402 Phlox St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-3%)	5mo	$239,999	$167	64
9506 Sierra Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-11%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	60
3116 Grassmere St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+5%)	10mo	$219,900	$142	60
9401 Kappa Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$123	60
3623 Jipsie Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+9%)	2mo	$205,000	$127	58
4358 Larkspur St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,501 (+2%)	2mo	$242,500	$162	58
4210 Larkspur St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-13%)	5mo	$199,000	$155	49
10118 Cathedral Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (-12%)	7mo	$200,000	$155	43
10521 Cathedral Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-7%)	10mo	$185,900	$136	41
3113 Sparrow St	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,664 (+13%)	12mo	$270,000	$162	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $115,358
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $345,657
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,787/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $100	+0% $43	+5% $-13	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-35	+0% $43	+5% $122	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $94	base $43	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	44d	1	0.19mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	44d	1	0.63mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	44d	1	0.67mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	0.76mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	0.80mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	0.84mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.96mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	23d	1	0.96mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	44d	1	0.99mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	0.99mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	1.01mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.02mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	1.05mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	1.09mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	21d	1	1.10mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	1.12mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	1.16mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	21d	1	1.17mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	44d	1	1.18mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	1.21mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	1.22mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.22mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.23mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	4d	1	1.27mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	25d	1	1.32mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	44d	1	1.43mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	1.44mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $214,900 311-char remark
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $219,000 Active 311-char remark
15. 2005-01-31
    soldstatus
16. 2004-12-27
    historical
17. 2003-11-20
    soldstatus
18. 2003-11-15
    listed $68,000
19. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,787 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,787 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,787
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$653
• After-tax cash flow: $1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+194.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2005-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-15 Listed $68,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,787 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.