652 Russell Ave · Johnstown, PA 15902

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

4,792 sqft lot Est $52k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Greater Johnstown Schools. .. 2 sty. vinyl sided home with 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom & a 1 car integral garage. 1st floor includes a living room, eat-in kitchen & dining room. The 2nd floor has 3 bedrooms, updated full bathroom & a walk-in closet. Finished walk-up attic with heat, closets, built-in's & cubbie holes. All appliances included. Laundry hook-up's & extra toilet in the basement. Covered front & back porches & level fenced-in back yard. Sewers will be in compliance before closing. A must see!!

Key facts

• Covered back porches
• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FINISHED WALK-UP ATTIC
• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• COVERED BACK PORCHES
• LEVEL FENCED-IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with concrete parking (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Rectangular lot; Publicly maintained road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Built-in features; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement with utility sink; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greater Johnstown El Sch (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,291 of 1,518 statewide, top 85%, 1,269 students, 100% FRL); Greater Johnstown Ms (math 6% / reading 24%, grade F, #471 of 512 statewide, top 93%, 660 students, 100% FRL); Greater Johnstown Shs (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #387 of 437 statewide, top 89%, 894 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 80% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $65k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $64,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.94%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 Russell Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,312 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$53	100
551 Russell Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,308 (-0%)	1mo	$52,500	$40	86
525 Woodland Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,324 (+1%)	6mo	$15,500	$12	83
751 Park Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,388 (+6%)	3mo	$43,500	$31	69
612 Woodland Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,502 (+14%)	2mo	$19,000	$13	68
209 Village St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+10%)	6mo	$17,900	$12	66
116 Sann St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-7%)	1mo	$136,000	$112	61
654 Park Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,446 (+10%)	4mo	$57,500	$40	57
157 Lohr Pl	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,183 (-10%)	2mo	$54,250	$46	53
545 Summit Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,187 (-10%)	3mo	$89,000	$75	48
627 Vickroy Ave	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	3mo	$125,000	$105	48
394 Plainfield Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-12%)	2mo	$27,900	$24	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $8,755
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $32,544
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15902

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,427/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $320	+0% $302	+5% $284	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $263	+0% $302	+5% $341	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $318	base $302	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
619 Grove Ave Johnstown, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	45d	1	0.28mi
550 Ferndale Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	45d	1	0.54mi
553 Vickroy Ave #555 Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$985	$0.76	45d	1	0.56mi
522 Vickroy Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1125	$850	$0.76	45d	1	0.61mi
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	45d	1	0.83mi
906 Lemon St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$750	$0.66	45d	1	1.16mi
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $64,900 Active
3. 1985-04-01
   soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,427
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $2,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $2,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• City population: 30,791
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,462
• Household income: $44,215
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Hungarian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.86%
• Current HPI: 108.2198
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $64,900 CSMLS
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,427 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.