804 Sherburne Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1884 3,963 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision and ideas to this spacious 2-story home full of potential. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the main level features a welcoming screened-in porch, living room, dining room, kitchen, one bedroom, and a 3/4 bathroom for convenient main-floor living. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile flex sunroom that could serve as a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Completing the property is a clean detached 2-stall garage, providing ample storage and parking. With solid space and endless possibilities, this home is ready for your personal touch. This home is being sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Flex sunroom
• 3,963 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• FLEX SUNROOM
• DETACHED 2-STALL GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half stories; Entry/facing direction not specified
• Construction: Foundation: Other; Foundation area approximately 879
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Other exterior features; Lot approximately 0.091 acres (40' x 100' x 40' x 100')

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on upper level, one level not specified)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; One three-quarter bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Screened porch; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on main level; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,302/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.10%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $61,279
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $164,257
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $1,433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	0.97mi
695 Grand Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$5,795	$5.13	18d	10	1.11mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 639-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $174,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,170
• − Management: −$3,170
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $15,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,670
• After-tax cash flow: $13,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.