684 W Jardin Dr · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2001 4,951 sqft lot Est $285k · 5% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wow, a great find! Newly updated in 2026. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an office and great room. New plush carpet just installed in all 3 bedrooms. Ceramic wood-texture tile everywhere else. Fresh interior paint throughout. Kitchen includes new white quartz countertops, white cabinets and all appliances. This home has been well maintained and is move-in ready. A must see!

Key facts

• 4,951 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($798/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $270k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,052 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
684 W Jardin Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+0%)	1mo	$266,000	$175	99
667 W Jardin Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$172	96
771 W Fairlane Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-2%)	2mo	$260,000	$175	84
659 W Jahns Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+2%)	0mo	$277,900	$180	81
727 W Judi Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+4%)	1mo	$296,000	$189	77
592 W Gabrilla Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+4%)	2mo	$310,000	$198	70
669 W Silver Reef Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-9%)	4mo	$260,000	$188	69
2127 N Nancy Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+2%)	3mo	$337,000	$217	68
2041 N Thunderbird Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (+6%)	3mo	$268,900	$167	66
2140 N Nancy Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+5%)	0mo	$240,000	$150	63
2145 N Nancy Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,423 (-6%)	4mo	$329,000	$231	54
2122 N Sweetwater Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	2mo	$305,000	$229	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-35,964
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-10,861
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $143	+0% $67	+5% $-10	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-21	+0% $67	+5% $154	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $135	base $67	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	26d	1	0.11mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	26d	1	0.15mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	0.22mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	26d	1	0.25mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	6d	1	0.29mi
750 W Torino Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,000	$1.49	1d	1	0.32mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.35mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	26d	1	0.44mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	26d	1	0.46mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	26d	1	0.78mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	6d	1	0.98mi
1584 N Wood St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,800	$0.93	17d	1	1.02mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	17d	1	1.19mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	1.24mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.34mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.34mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.34mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	24d	3	1.34mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.34mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	17d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2019-10-11
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2008-02-20
   historical
5. 2007-09-14
   listed $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,781 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$37/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$927
• After-tax cash flow: $1,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+97.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $269,900 ARMLS
• 2019-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-09-14 Listed $137,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.