315 S Catherine St · Bay City, MI 48706

$100,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1871 4,792 sqft lot $60/sqft · at area comps Est $104k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1,800 sq ft home featuring a 2-car garage and endless opportunity. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a first-time homebuyer ready to build equity, this property offers incredible value. With solid bones and a generous layout, this home is the perfect canvas to make your vision a reality. Some updates and repairs are needed, making it ideal for those who want to customize and add personal touches while increasing long-term value. Conveniently designed with ample living space, this property provides room to grow, entertain, and create a place to truly call home. Don't miss this chance to invest in your future! Why not own the Entire corner? 315 S Catherine ($100,000), 310 S Henry (90,000) and 316 S Henry ($205,000), Make an Offer!

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1871

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100 (0.11 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $100k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1871 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1871 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,285
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -4.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 E Jenny St	0.09mi	4/1.5	1,885 (+13%)	6mo	$137,000	$73	66
803 S Warner St	0.52mi	4/1.5	1,686 (+1%)	8mo	$158,000	$94	65
501 W Jenny St	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,628 (-2%)	6mo	$85,000	$52	63
104 King St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (-4%)	3mo	$159,900	$100	55
507 Litchfield St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+4%)	7mo	$140,000	$81	54
307 N Warner St	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,492 (-10%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	52
709 N Wenona Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	52
506 LITCHFIELD St	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,422 (-14%)	0mo	$119,900	$84	50
204 N Mountain St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (+4%)	7mo	$159,900	$93	50
514 S Kiesel St	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,526 (-8%)	4mo	$150,000	$98	46
604 W Midland St	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,826 (+10%)	9mo	$180,250	$99	41
1000 E Florence St	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,830 (+10%)	5mo	$175,000	$96	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,985
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,723
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,885/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $100,000 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Unlock the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1,800 sq ft home featuring a 2-car garage and endless opportunity. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a first-time homebuyer ready to build equity, this property offers incredible value. With solid bones and a generous layout, this home is the perfect canvas to make your vision a reality. Some updates and repairs are needed, making it ideal for those who want to customize and add personal touches while increasing long-term value. Conveniently designed with ample living space, this property provides room to grow, entertain, and create a place to truly call home. Don't miss this chance to invest in your future! Why not own the Entire corner? 315 S Catherine ($100,000), 310 S Henry (90,000) and 316 S Henry ($205,000), Make an Offer!

18. 2026-05-06
    listed $100,000 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Unlock the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 1,800 sq ft home featuring a 2-car garage and endless opportunity. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a first-time homebuyer ready to build equity, this property offers incredible value. With solid bones and a generous layout, this home is the perfect canvas to make your vision a reality. Some updates and repairs are needed, making it ideal for those who want to customize and add personal touches while increasing long-term value. Conveniently designed with ample living space, this property provides room to grow, entertain, and create a place to truly call home. Don't miss this chance to invest in your future! Why not own the Entire corner? 315 S Catherine ($100,000), 310 S Henry (90,000) and 316 S Henry ($205,000), Make an Offer!

19. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus $30,000
20. 2012-10-24
    soldstatus $35,000
21. 2011-08-08
    soldstatus $22,200
22. 2011-06-29
    soldstatus $19,700

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    HUD Home. Plenty of room to roam in this traditional style home. Large rooms with some built-ins. Kitchen has a ton of cabinets plus a pantry.

23. 2011-03-18
    listed $22,400

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    HUD Home. Plenty of room to roam in this traditional style home. Large rooms with some built-ins. Kitchen has a ton of cabinets plus a pantry.

24. 2010-06-09
    soldstatus $97,180

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,885
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$581
• After-tax cash flow: $3,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,200 Public Records
• 2011-06-29 Sold (MLS) $19,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-03-18 Listed $22,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $97,180 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,885 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.