Lancashire Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$685,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,251 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This plan is available on a 100' lot! The chic 1 story floor plan with the WOW effect. From the moment you enter, feel the highest level of craftsmanship with a passion for perfection reflected in every detail. The high ceilings run throughout, creating a modern atmosphere with a relaxed, indoor-outdoor flow leading to the spacious covered patio. There are 4 bedrooms 3 1/2 bathrooms an office w/ bedroom option and a state of the art kitchen with breakfast bar the size of Texas. The Stainless steel appliances and the gas cooktop are already included. All bedrooms are oversized with walk-in closets and the 3-car garage is just an added Bonus to make this the perfect floor plan. * Home will ha

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Covered patio
• 100 lot

Tags

• 100 LOT
• HIGH CEILINGS
• COVERED PATIO
• STATE OF THE ART KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKTOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $685,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named Lancashire; Inventory type: Plan
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area of 3,251 (per plan); Address: 100 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX 78009

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (details per plan)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living space (per plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (per plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $685,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $691,019.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $686k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($550/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $610k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $610k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($665k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $610,287 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $691,019
• List price: $685,990
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Matthew Path	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,325 (+2%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	73
239 Sittre Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,324 (+2%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	66
235 Poe	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,101 (-5%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	66
534 Englewood	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	6mo	$669,990	$188	61
936 County Road 375	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (-7%)	1mo	$768,000	$254	58
267 Sweet Rose	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,094 (-5%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	57
165 Poe Pkwy	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,849 (-12%)	5mo	$599,900	$211	56
280 Sittre Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,003 (-8%)	5mo	$545,000	$181	53
287 Poe Pkwy	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	7mo	$669,990	$188	53
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (-6%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	50
264 Storm Way	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	1mo	$695,990	$195	50
183 Poe Pkwy	0.43mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,716 (+14%)	4mo	$639,990	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-108,966
• Equity at exit: $103,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-90,756
• Equity at exit: $59,747

Cash invested: $193,485 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$864 /mo · $10,365/yr
• Insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,282
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,045

Max offer price $691,019

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $285	+0% $46	+5% $-193	+10% $-432
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-195	+0% $46	+5% $287	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $222	base $46	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,755
• Closing costs: $20,731
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	6d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	45d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	46d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	6d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $685,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $685,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $685,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $685,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $685,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $685,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $685,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $685,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $685,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $685,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $685,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $685,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $685,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $685,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $685,990 Active 726-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,708
• − Property taxes: −$10,365
• − Insurance: −$3,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,859
• − Management: −$5,859
• − Depreciation: −$20,102
• Taxable loss: −$11,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof, siding, paint, and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image suggests potential roof damage.
• Major exterior siding — The siding appears worn and in need of replacement.
• Major exterior paint — The paint is peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and requires trimming and maintenance.
• Major HVAC/air conditioning — No systems are visible, but the home appears old and in need of updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Updating the siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both the home's resale and rental value.
• Resale HVAC/air conditioning — Upgrading the HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image suggests potential roof damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding appears worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · The paint is peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and requires trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/air conditioning · No systems are visible, but the home appears old and in need of updates.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Updating the siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both the home's resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale HVAC/air conditioning — Upgrading the HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B