7870 Cottage Lane SW #28 · Alexandria, MN 56308

$115,000

None bd · None ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition $108/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Lake Andrew! 2008 Woodland Park camper in excellent condition with a brand-new roof and AC unit located at the beautiful Cottage Grove Resort on Lake Andrew in Alexandria, MN. This charming unit features 1 bedroom on the main level with a double loft, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious 9' x 23' sun porch built in 2024. Enjoy over 900 acres of lake access on this seasonal getaway, complete with maintenance-free decking, city sewer, a shared well, and a brand-new shed added in 2024. An extra lot next door provides added space for outdoor fun or parking, along with new firepits, a picnic area, and access to the resort lodge—perfect for hosting large gatherings. It also includes ownership of 1/2 of 40' pier, boat slip with canopy and motor. Grab your suitcase—your vacation starts today! Please note: Buyer will receive a stock certificate at closing. MLS # for Lot 29: BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!6753568 BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Sun porch
• Lake access

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC UNIT
• SUN PORCH
• LAKE ACCESS
• MAINTENANCE FREE DECKING
• SHARED WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.5% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MN, #2,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Alexandria Public School District (town): math 55% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #64 of 301 in MN (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 38% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 51% / reading 57%, grade B-, #48 of 258 statewide, top 19%, 913 students, 34% FRL); Alexandria Area High School (math 39% / reading 62%, grade D+, #131 of 471 statewide, top 28%, 1,302 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 413 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (88 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7870 Cottage Ln SW #33	0.00mi	1/1.0	—	23mo	$139,900	$233	69
8018 County Road 28 SW #19	0.19mi	3/1.0	—	13mo	$128,900	$232	68
8018 County Road 28 SW #29	0.19mi	2/1.0	—	14mo	$125,000	$207	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,727
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $11,876
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56308

• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $241	+0% $201	+5% $162	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $146	+0% $201	+5% $256	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $231	base $201	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: sewer

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on marketlisting id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 321 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 320 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 319 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $115,000 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Andrew! 2008 Woodland Park camper in excellent condition with a brand-new roof and AC unit located at the beautiful Cottage Grove Resort on Lake Andrew in Alexandria, MN. This charming unit features 1 bedroom on the main level with a double loft, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious 9' x 23' sun porch built in 2024. Enjoy over 900 acres of lake access on this seasonal getaway, complete with maintenance-free decking, city sewer, a shared well, and a brand-new shed added in 2024. An extra lot next door provides added space for outdoor fun or parking, along with new firepits, a picnic area, and access to the resort lodge—perfect for hosting large gatherings. It also includes ownership of 1/2 of 40' pier, boat slip with canopy and motor. Grab your suitcase—your vacation starts today! Please note: Buyer will receive a stock certificate at closing. MLS # for Lot 29: BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!6753568 BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!

19. 2025-09-05
    price $122,500 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Andrew! 2008 Woodland Park camper in excellent condition with a brand-new roof and AC unit located at the beautiful Cottage Grove Resort on Lake Andrew in Alexandria, MN. This charming unit features 1 bedroom on the main level with a double loft, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious 9' x 23' sun porch built in 2024. Enjoy over 900 acres of lake access on this seasonal getaway, complete with maintenance-free decking, city sewer, a shared well, and a brand-new shed added in 2024. An extra lot next door provides added space for outdoor fun or parking, along with new firepits, a picnic area, and access to the resort lodge—perfect for hosting large gatherings. It also includes ownership of 1/2 of 40' pier, boat slip with canopy and motor. Grab your suitcase—your vacation starts today! Please note: Buyer will receive a stock certificate at closing. MLS # for Lot 29: BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!6753568 BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!

20. 2025-07-15
    listed $126,500 Active 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    Welcome to Lake Andrew! 2008 Woodland Park camper in excellent condition with a brand-new roof and AC unit located at the beautiful Cottage Grove Resort on Lake Andrew in Alexandria, MN. This charming unit features 1 bedroom on the main level with a double loft, vaulted ceilings, and a spacious 9' x 23' sun porch built in 2024. Enjoy over 900 acres of lake access on this seasonal getaway, complete with maintenance-free decking, city sewer, a shared well, and a brand-new shed added in 2024. An extra lot next door provides added space for outdoor fun or parking, along with new firepits, a picnic area, and access to the resort lodge—perfect for hosting large gatherings. It also includes ownership of 1/2 of 40' pier, boat slip with canopy and motor. Grab your suitcase—your vacation starts today! Please note: Buyer will receive a stock certificate at closing. MLS # for Lot 29: BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!6753568 BONUS: 2026 Dues have been paid!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $2,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor repairs and maintenance to improve its appearance and functionality. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value include painting the interior, updating the kitchen, and replacing the living room carpet.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Painting the cabinets would refresh the look of the kitchen.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Updating the fixtures would improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality.
• Minor Living room carpet — Replacing the carpet with a more modern or durable option would enhance the living space's appearance and comfort.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and ceilings — Refreshing the interior will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — A fresh look in the kitchen will make the home more attractive and functional for both buyers and renters.
• Both Replacing the living room carpet — A more modern and durable carpet will enhance the living space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Painting the cabinets would refresh the look of the kitchen.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Updating the fixtures would improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality.	Minor	$500–3,000
Living room carpet · Replacing the carpet with a more modern or durable option would enhance the living space's appearance and comfort.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and ceilings — Refreshing the interior will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — A fresh look in the kitchen will make the home more attractive and functional for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Replacing the living room carpet — A more modern and durable carpet will enhance the living space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexandria Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,476
• Composite: 48.0/100
• National rank: #2197
• State rank: #64 of 301 in MN

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2409

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 27,008 people
• City population: 27,008
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• Population (ZIP): 27,008
• Household income: $78,177
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,913 people
• By 2030: 39,636 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 40,564 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 40,819 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 40,824 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 38,379 · -1.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.1) · D 31.7% · R 66.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -35.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.1 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.15%
• Current HPI: 189.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $122,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $126,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid