230 Sterling Rd · East Niles, CA 93307

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 9,147 sqft lot Est $309k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family HUD Home located in East Bakersfield! Offering 1,406 sq. ft. of living space, this property is full of potential for first-time buyers or anyone looking to create their dream home. The home features a welcoming front porch, a convenient carport, and a large gated front yard and curb appeal. Inside, you'll find a functional floor plan with solid bones, ready for updating, repairs, and your personal touches to bring it to its full potential. Step outside to a spacious backyard with plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, play areas, or future improvements. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or an affordable oppo

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Gated front yard
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• GATED FRONT YARD
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Vacant; 0.21-acre lot; Lot measured in square feet; Directions: From Hwy 58 and Sterling Rd, drive north; Located in the Oswell Park neighborhood, Kern Citrus Home Sites subdivision; Cross street: Virginia Ave

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fairfax Elementary (suburban): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,118 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Avenue Elementary (685 students, 95% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,817 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3607 Periwinkle Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,212 (0%)	3mo	$275,000	$227	90
507 Tulip St	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,208 (-0%)	2mo	$295,000	$244	84
409 jane St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,210 (-0%)	3mo	$298,000	$246	68
40 Sterling Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (+11%)	0mo	$410,000	$305	59
3317 Center	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,160 (-4%)	2mo	$332,500	$287	56
3306 Center St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,198 (-1%)	3mo	$186,000	$155	54
404 Hill St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,102 (-9%)	1mo	$280,000	$254	53
5218 Skeldale Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (+9%)	3mo	$350,000	$264	52
318 Leeta	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,391 (+15%)	1mo	$355,000	$255	52
4402 Lexington Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,127 (-7%)	4mo	$170,000	$151	47
203 Isla Del Sol Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,091 (-10%)	2mo	$305,000	$280	44
311 Ixtapa Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,091 (-10%)	4mo	$310,000	$284	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,762
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $36,890
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $329	+0% $272	+5% $216	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $196	+0% $272	+5% $348	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $323	base $272	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 Camellia Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,925	$1.71	45d	1	0.28mi
460 Oswell St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	4d	1	0.52mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	45d	1	0.60mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 12 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	4d	1	0.60mi
925 Pesante Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	0.67mi
930 Sterling Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	848	$1,150	$1.36	15d	1	0.67mi
1322 Vale St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1177	$2,100	$1.78	4d	1	1.05mi
2703 Center St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	1.16mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $200,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$19
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $3,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0613290
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,651
• Composite: 26.45/100
• National rank: #12639
• State rank: #1118 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $200,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.