13138 Turret Bend Way · Cut and Shoot, TX 77378

$159,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 3,135 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $162k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 13138 Turret Bend Way WILLIS TX 77378 priced at 169990, the square foot and stories are 1030, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 0 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Utility room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $157,590 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.42%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,550
• List price: $159,990
• Delta: -0.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,415
• Equity at exit: $23,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $18,502
• Equity at exit: $13,833

Cash invested: $44,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $159,990

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,998
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12366 Sword Point Ct Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	43d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,990 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,990 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,990 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $159,990 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,990 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $159,990 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    The property is located at 13138 Turret Bend Way WILLIS TX 77378 priced at 169990, the square foot and stories are 1030, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 0 garages. For more details please, call or email.

15. 2026-05-07
    price $164,990 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    The property is located at 13138 Turret Bend Way WILLIS TX 77378 priced at 169990, the square foot and stories are 1030, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 0 garages. For more details please, call or email.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $169,990 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    The property is located at 13138 Turret Bend Way WILLIS TX 77378 priced at 169990, the square foot and stories are 1030, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 0 garages. For more details please, call or email.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,345/yr (+$195/mo · 402.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable income: $2,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $4,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $159,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $164,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $169,990 Zillow