164 County Road 5015 · Montevallo, AL 35115

$129,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition 0.64 ac lot $58/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · at est. ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this spacious home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Situated on just over half an acre, this property provides the privacy and space you’ve been looking for. The home features a large primary suite with a generously sized ensuite bathroom. Enjoy a roomy dining area and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Roomy dining area
• Large primary suite
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• ROOMY DINING AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.7% in Montevallo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,908
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-223
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $26,604
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35115

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $370	+0% $326	+5% $281	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $265	+0% $326	+5% $387	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $359	base $326	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 Melton St Montevallo, AL	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,545	$0.81	2d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,500 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $129,500 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Don’t miss this spacious home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Situated on just over half an acre, this property provides the privacy and space you’ve been looking for. The home features a large primary suite with a generously sized ensuite bathroom. Enjoy a roomy dining area and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

17. 2026-01-18
    price $135,000 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Don’t miss this spacious home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Situated on just over half an acre, this property provides the privacy and space you’ve been looking for. The home features a large primary suite with a generously sized ensuite bathroom. Enjoy a roomy dining area and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $130,000 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Don’t miss this spacious home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Situated on just over half an acre, this property provides the privacy and space you’ve been looking for. The home features a large primary suite with a generously sized ensuite bathroom. Enjoy a roomy dining area and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Schedule your showing today and see all this home has to offer!

19. 2025-02-11
    price $150,000
20. 2023-01-30
    price $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $1,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $3,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint interior walls, and repair exterior siding. These updates will significantly improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen countertops — tile countertops need replacement
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated fixtures need replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear on siding
• Minor interior walls — paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen countertops — modern countertops improve aesthetics
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern fixtures improve aesthetics
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value
• Both replace carpeted floors — hardwood floors improve aesthetics and value
• Resale repair exterior siding — new siding improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · tile countertops need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated fixtures need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · moderate wear on siding	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$33,500–118,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen countertops — modern countertops improve aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern fixtures improve aesthetics ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both replace carpeted floors — hardwood floors improve aesthetics and value ↑
• Resale repair exterior siding — new siding improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montevallo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montevallo, AL
• Population (ZIP): 16,911

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.55%
• Current HPI: 207.2205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $129,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $130,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $150,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-30 Price Changed $179,900 Greater Alabama MLS