Pinion Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$328,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The popular single-story Pinion at The Canyons at Trinity Ranch blends open-concept living with private relaxation. Toward the front of the home, two secondary bedrooms share access to a full hall bathroom. A third bedroom can also function as a versatile flex room, providing the perfect space for a personal library, craft room or quiet study. Designed for everyday convenience, a spacious kitchen provides ample pantry, cabinet and counter space. A generous great room and charming dining area hug the kitchen for a seamless flow between spaces. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite boasts a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. Options may include: Alternate primary bath layout Covered patio

Key facts

• Ample pantry
• Versatile flex room
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• FULL HALL BATHROOM
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• AMPLE PANTRY
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE
• ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $328,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,504.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,988 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,504
• List price: $328,990
• Delta: 0.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Hidalgo Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,818 (-2%)	3mo	$321,770	$177	88
147 Two Bits Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-4%)	3mo	$299,840	$168	78
170 Hornet St	0.22mi	4/3.0	1,998 (+8%)	1mo	$316,935	$159	72
182 Bendecido Loop	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+8%)	1mo	$321,990	$161	72
163 Two Bits Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+8%)	3mo	$319,990	$160	71
129 Two Bits Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+8%)	2mo	$314,990	$157	70
119 Two Bits Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+8%)	1mo	$316,990	$158	70
107 Two Bits Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+8%)	2mo	$333,075	$166	68
136 Tolo Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,025 (+9%)	3mo	$309,990	$153	67
305 Bendecido Loop	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,674 (-10%)	3mo	$278,975	$167	64
437 Lucky Ave	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,648 (-11%)	2mo	$300,490	$182	63
256 Bendecido Loop	0.35mi	4/3.0	1,674 (-10%)	3mo	$299,975	$179	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $159,939
• Equity at exit: $295,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $486,869
• Equity at exit: $638,212

Cash invested: $91,981 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,723
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,928/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $284,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-190	+0% $-303	+5% $-417	+10% $-530
Rent	-10% $-500	-5% $-402	+0% $-303	+5% $-205	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-220	base $-303	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,126
• Closing costs: $9,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Gullivers Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2304	$2,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.07mi
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.11mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	6d	1	0.65mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	25d	1	0.96mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.97mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	0.98mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $328,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $328,990 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $328,990 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $328,990 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $328,990 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,990 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $328,990 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $328,990 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $328,990 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $328,990 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,990 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,990 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $328,990 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,990 Active 372 DOM
15. 2025-07-26
    price $328,990 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The popular single-story Pinion at The Canyons at Trinity Ranch blends open-concept living with private relaxation. Toward the front of the home, two secondary bedrooms share access to a full hall bathroom. A third bedroom can also function as a versatile flex room, providing the perfect space for a personal library, craft room or quiet study. Designed for everyday convenience, a spacious kitchen provides ample pantry, cabinet and counter space. A generous great room and charming dining area hug the kitchen for a seamless flow between spaces. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite boasts a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. Options may include: Alternate primary bath layout Covered patio

16. 2025-05-24
    listed $341,990 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The popular single-story Pinion at The Canyons at Trinity Ranch blends open-concept living with private relaxation. Toward the front of the home, two secondary bedrooms share access to a full hall bathroom. A third bedroom can also function as a versatile flex room, providing the perfect space for a personal library, craft room or quiet study. Designed for everyday convenience, a spacious kitchen provides ample pantry, cabinet and counter space. A generous great room and charming dining area hug the kitchen for a seamless flow between spaces. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite boasts a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath. Options may include: Alternate primary bath layout Covered patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,928
• − Insurance: −$1,643
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − Depreciation: −$9,556
• Taxable loss: −$9,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $341,990 Zillow