22559 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$405,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $444k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Boasting two stories, the Concord is the largest single-family home in this collection. The first floor features a modern design with an open kitchen, living room and dining room, along with a versatile bedroom ideal for overnight guests. The second floor is home to four bedrooms, an adaptable loft and the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Adaptable loft
• Versatile bedroom
• Open kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORIES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• ADAPTABLE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $402,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Spec); Concord floor plan
• Exterior features: Address: 22559 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Concord plan; Living area of 2580

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $406k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $320,790 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22342 Blazing Star Run	0.18mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	19mo	$444,900	$172	76
22337 Nebula Way	0.19mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	19mo	$464,600	$180	75
22326 Blazing Star Run	0.20mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	20mo	$432,900	$168	74
22303 Blazing Star Run	0.21mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	21mo	$429,900	$167	73
22297 Nebula Way	0.23mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	20mo	$449,900	$174	73
22312 Pleasant Morning Dr	0.23mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	1mo	$439,000	$184	69
7852 Painted Sky Pl	0.39mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	1mo	$390,900	$164	62
22169 Calisto Way	0.36mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (+12%)	0mo	$464,900	$161	55
22321 Nebula Way	0.21mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	20mo	$439,900	$184	54
8064 Painted Sky Pl	0.38mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (+12%)	10mo	$464,900	$161	47
7961 Painted Sky Pl	0.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (+12%)	9mo	$469,900	$162	44
22318 Blazing Star Run	0.20mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	20mo	$394,900	$178	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-57,528
• Equity at exit: $87,593

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-48,867
• Equity at exit: $83,395

Cash invested: $113,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,129
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$507 /mo · $6,088/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,551

Max offer price $366,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-131	+0% $-271	+5% $-411	+10% $-551
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-398	+0% $-271	+5% $-144	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-168	base $-271	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,475
• Closing costs: $12,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $405,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $403,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 331-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $402,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,737
• − Property taxes: −$6,088
• − Insurance: −$2,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,080
• − Management: −$3,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,808
• Taxable loss: −$10,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,478
• After-tax cash flow: $-772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B