4860 Fireweed St · Middleburg, FL 32068

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1998 1.18 ac lot Est $259k · 29% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper. The house needs a new roof, flooring, framing repairs and etc. Great investment opportunities.

Key facts

• 1.18 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property contains a single unit
• HOA & community: No HOA maintenance or amenities; Community type: see remarks

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential, manufactured home; Manufactured building design; Single-story; Rear exposure faces southwest; 1.18 acres
• Construction: Built in 1998; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding exterior; Single hung windows; Shingle roof; Wooded area view; Regular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom: see remarks
• Interior features: Split-bedroom floor plan; Unfurnished; See remarks for additional interior details

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4794 Dandelion St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+7%)	7mo	$249,900	$145	72
4799 Wheat Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,510 (-7%)	9mo	$275,000	$182	66
4921 Alfalfa St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,815 (+12%)	4mo	$310,000	$171	63
2501 Cosmos Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-4%)	15mo	$250,000	$160	59
4938 Basil St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+11%)	2mo	$267,900	$149	51
2271 Reed Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	8mo	$238,000	$163	45
4785 Cattail St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+12%)	15mo	$260,000	$143	43
2281 Cornel Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+9%)	21mo	$313,100	$177	37
2239 Cosmos Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+10%)	20mo	$260,000	$146	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,984
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $21,259
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2025-12-15
    price $185,000
15. 2025-12-04
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$219
• After-tax cash flow: $3,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $185,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $190,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.