2714 SW Keystone Dr · Odessa, TX 79762

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,187 sqft lot Est $198k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So much potential! Come see the backyards huge, covered patio and outdoor kitchen area just in time for the summer! Notice the high metal fence for privacy and security! Perfect outdoor storage unit great for projects and storage! Concrete pad area that is suited for basketball! Home is for sale as is! Bring your offers!

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• Backyard patio
• Metal fence

Tags

• BACKYARD PATIO
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• METAL FENCE
• OUTDOOR STORAGE UNIT
• CONCRETE PAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 covered parking space; Additional parking pad (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.165-acre lot
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Solar energy system

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Burnet El (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #4,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 389 students, 77% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,505
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Dawn Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-0%)	23mo	$199,900	$174	44
2519 Adams Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-11%)	20mo	$175,000	$171	39
1500 Castle Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-9%)	12mo	$110,000	$104	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-126
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $23,262
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,553/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 E 23rd St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,400	$2.33	43d	1	0.28mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	13d	1	0.28mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	13d	1	0.35mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	21d	1	0.50mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	21d	1	0.59mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	43d	1	0.63mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	43d	1	0.87mi
1219 Milburn Ave Unit K2YBUILDING K Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	43d	1	0.96mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	0.98mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	43d	1	0.98mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J2VBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	0.98mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J1TBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	43d	1	0.98mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	21d	1	1.04mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	43d	1	1.04mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	43d	1	1.07mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	21d	1	1.08mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	13d	1	1.08mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	43d	1	1.11mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	43d	1	1.11mi
1501 N Texas Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	13d	1	1.15mi
1315 N Jackson Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	13d	1	1.16mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	1.19mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	1.30mi
701 Hillcrest Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	43d	1	1.30mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	13d	1	1.30mi
1604 N Sam Houston Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$2,000	$1.75	43d	1	1.33mi
4233 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	43d	1	1.34mi
4217 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1203	$2,200	$1.83	13d	1	1.35mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,100	$1.72	21d	1	1.35mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	43d	1	1.35mi
4256 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,600	$1.27	21d	1	1.42mi
3509 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	1.45mi
3107 Merrill Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	43d	1	1.47mi
3824 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	13d	1	1.48mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	43d	1	1.49mi
3902 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,445	$1.13	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Under Contract 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   So much potential! Come see the backyards huge, covered patio and outdoor kitchen area just in time for the summer! Notice the high metal fence for privacy and security! Perfect outdoor storage unit great for projects and storage! Concrete pad area that is suited for basketball! Home is for sale as is! Bring your offers!

3. 2026-04-28
   listed $150,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   So much potential! Come see the backyards huge, covered patio and outdoor kitchen area just in time for the summer! Notice the high metal fence for privacy and security! Perfect outdoor storage unit great for projects and storage! Concrete pad area that is suited for basketball! Home is for sale as is! Bring your offers!

4. 2026-04-28
   listed $150,000 Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   So much potential! Come see the backyards huge, covered patio and outdoor kitchen area just in time for the summer! Notice the high metal fence for privacy and security! Perfect outdoor storage unit great for projects and storage! Concrete pad area that is suited for basketball! Home is for sale as is! Bring your offers!

5. 2018-12-05
   soldstatus
6. 2018-12-04
   soldstatus 168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (168 chars)

   Cute and Clean! Updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Fabulous covered patio. Tall metal privacy fence in backyard made for entertaining. Perfect for a first time home buyer.

7. 2018-10-17
   listed $140,000 168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (168 chars)

   Cute and Clean! Updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Fabulous covered patio. Tall metal privacy fence in backyard made for entertaining. Perfect for a first time home buyer.

8. 2009-12-23
   soldstatus
9. 2009-12-18
   soldstatus
10. 2009-10-26
    listed $87,000
11. 1998-07-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,192/yr (+$99/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,553
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$682
• After-tax cash flow: $4,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — ODMLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $150,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $150,000 ODMLS
• 2018-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-04 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2018-10-17 Listed $140,000 ODMLS
• 2009-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-12-18 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2009-10-26 Listed $87,000 ODMLS
• 1998-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,553 · -39.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.