12827 Autumn Woods Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$270,449

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to 12827 Autumn Woods Drive, a beautifully appointed 2-story home in the new community of Sweetgrass Village, zoned to Crosby ISD! This home sits on a premium lot that has no back neighbors and is walking distance to the Community Clubhouse, swimming pool, splashpad and pickle ball courts. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, and an attached 2-car garage. The Den is an additional living space for a formal living or home/office. The kitchen is designed for both function and style, featuring a central island, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops.

Key facts

• Pickle ball courts
• Swimming pool
• Premium lot

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• SWIMMING POOL
• SPLASHPAD
• PICKLE BALL COURTS
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $270,449 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,304 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,990
• List price: $270,449
• Delta: -11.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1511 Chimney Springs Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	0mo	$298,990	$139	63
1543 Chimney Springs Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	3mo	$284,991	$132	60
12727 Cobbler Glenn Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-21%)	1mo	$268,990	$140	56
1531 Chimney Springs Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-21%)	3mo	$255,990	$133	56
13619 Spectacled Bear Ln	1.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,580 (+6%)	2mo	$317,500	$123	48
11510 Heritage Wind Dr	1.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$282,900	$125	48
11522 Heritage Wind Dr	1.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$279,900	$124	48
2431 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.96mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$311,309	$138	45
2507 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.96mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (-7%)	2mo	$308,290	$136	45
2435 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.96mi	3/2.5	1,826 (-25%)	2mo	$282,540	$155	39
13622 Giant Panda Bear Ave	1.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,945 (+21%)	2mo	$330,000	$112	33
11511 Heritage Wind Dr	1.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,003 (-18%)	3mo	$278,900	$139	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,043
• Equity at exit: $45,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-98,392
• Equity at exit: $26,283

Cash invested: $85,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,393

Max offer price $252,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-207	+0% $-293	+5% $-379	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-373	+0% $-293	+5% $-213	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-215	base $-293	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,998
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	85d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $660Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Construction: New construction, under constructionBuilt in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardBackyard fenceBacks to a greenbelt or park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGarbage disposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms are upstairs
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanityEn-suite bathroomGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room combinationKitchen and dining area combinationPantryTub and showerWalk-in closetWindow treatmentsProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $270,449 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $270,449 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $270,449 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $270,449 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $270,449 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $270,449 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $270,449 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $270,449 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $270,449 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $270,449 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $270,449 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on marketlisting id $270,449 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $270,449 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $270,449 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $270,449 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $270,449 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $270,449 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $270,449 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $270,449 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $270,449 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $270,449 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $270,449 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $270,449 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $270,449 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $270,449 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $270,449 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $270,449 Active 87 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $270,449 Active 86 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $270,449 Active 85 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $270,449 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $270,449 Active 83 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $270,449 Active 82 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    price $270,449 Active 81 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $274,449 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $274,449 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,449 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,449 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $274,449 Active 77 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    price $274,449 Active 76 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $274,270 Active 76 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $274,270 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $274,270 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $274,270 Active 73 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $274,270 Active 72 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $274,270 Active 71 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $274,270 Active 70 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $274,270 Active 69 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $274,270 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $274,270 Active 67 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $274,270 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,949 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,569/yr (+$297/mo · 258.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,028
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,843
• Taxable loss: −$9,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $660Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Construction: New construction, under constructionBuilt in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardBackyard fenceBacks to a greenbelt or park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGarbage disposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms are upstairs
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanityEn-suite bathroomGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room combinationKitchen and dining area combinationPantryTub and showerWalk-in closetWindow treatmentsProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-10-26 Listed $270,449 HARMLS
• 2026-10-06 Price Changed $270,449 HARMLS
• 2026-10-01 Price Changed $274,449 HARMLS
• 2026-09-02 Price Changed $274,270 HARMLS
• 2026-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-17 Listed $284,270 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $290,941 HARMLS