4523 Stormont Rd · Saluda, VA 23071

$250,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1970 $76/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Grand Location on 8.5 Acres zoned for farming. This is a Buyers' or Builders' Dream. Welcome to this charming area with opportunity to rebuild. This lot offers ample space for expansion or a creative builder's touch. Just 10 minutes from the Piankatank River Golf Course, this home offers easy access to recreation and leisure. - **Horse-Friendly:** Previously zoned for horses, this property is great for equestrian enthusiasts. Selling as is. The house on the lot needs complete restoration. Buyers have the potential to divide area into 3 properties at 2.5 acres with a right of way passage. (Please contact Middlesex County for more information.) Schedule your showing appointment today.

Key facts

• 8.5 acres
• Zoned for farming
• Horse-friendly

Tags

• 8.5 ACRES
• ZONED FOR FARMING
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• EASY ACCESS TO RECREATION
• HORSE-FRIENDLY
• ZONED FOR HORSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D-, #817 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 97% FRL); St. Clare Walker Middle (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 287 students, 87% FRL); Middlesex High (math 92% / reading 82%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 346 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 44% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,547 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $688,416
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -63.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,786
• Equity at exit: $57,669

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,507
• Equity at exit: $58,304

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23071

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,700/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $204,609

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-186	+0% $-257	+5% $-328	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-322	+0% $-257	+5% $-192	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-193	base $-257	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-03-04
    listed $250,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Grand Location on 8.5 Acres zoned for farming. This is a Buyers' or Builders' Dream. Welcome to this charming area with opportunity to rebuild. This lot offers ample space for expansion or a creative builder's touch. Just 10 minutes from the Piankatank River Golf Course, this home offers easy access to recreation and leisure. - **Horse-Friendly:** Previously zoned for horses, this property is great for equestrian enthusiasts. Selling as is. The house on the lot needs complete restoration. Buyers have the potential to divide area into 3 properties at 2.5 acres with a right of way passage. (Please contact Middlesex County for more information.) Schedule your showing appointment today.

19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-02-06
    price $250,000
21. 2025-08-11
    price $349,500
22. 2025-07-14
    price $349,800
23. 2025-05-29
    price $349,900
24. 2025-04-11
    price $350,000
25. 2025-03-12
    listed $370,000 Active
26. 2025-03-12
    historical
27. 2024-11-09
    price $370,000
28. 2024-10-29
    price $375,000
29. 2024-10-23
    price $380,000
30. 2024-10-07
    price $385,000
31. 2024-09-27
    listed $395,000 Active
32. 2024-09-26
    historical
33. 2024-09-04
    price $395,000
34. 2024-08-13
    price $465,000
35. 2024-08-02
    price $485,000
36. 2024-07-20
    price $490,000
37. 2024-07-12
    listed $500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,700 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,700
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saluda

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #26208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,970

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 317.9851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $349,500 REINMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $349,800 REINMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $349,900 REINMLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $350,000 REINMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $370,000 REINMLS
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $370,000 REINMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $380,000 REINMLS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $385,000 REINMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $395,000 REINMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $395,000 REINMLS
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $465,000 REINMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $485,000 REINMLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $490,000 REINMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $500,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,700 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.