12514 Bonnie Ln · Vistula, IN 46540

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1980 0.51 ac lot $95/sqft · 32% below area Est $251k · 32% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come own this private 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on a spacious half-acre lot with no HOA and no lot rent. Inside, you’ll find two separate living room spaces, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, create a playroom, or set up a home office. Outside features a 2-car detached garage with ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Detached garage
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middlebury Community Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #84 of 301 in IN (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,337
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -32.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-862
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $33,428
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46540

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $861/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $468	+0% $420	+5% $372	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $347	+0% $420	+5% $492	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $463	base $420	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $169,900 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Come own this private 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on a spacious half-acre lot with no HOA and no lot rent. Inside, you’ll find two separate living room spaces, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, create a playroom, or set up a home office. Outside features a 2-car detached garage with ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies.

2. 2026-04-25
   price $179,500 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Come own this private 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on a spacious half-acre lot with no HOA and no lot rent. Inside, you’ll find two separate living room spaces, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, create a playroom, or set up a home office. Outside features a 2-car detached garage with ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies.

3. 2026-03-31
   price $179,900 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Come own this private 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on a spacious half-acre lot with no HOA and no lot rent. Inside, you’ll find two separate living room spaces, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, create a playroom, or set up a home office. Outside features a 2-car detached garage with ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies.

4. 2026-03-22
   listed $189,900 Active 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Come own this private 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on a spacious half-acre lot with no HOA and no lot rent. Inside, you’ll find two separate living room spaces, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, create a playroom, or set up a home office. Outside features a 2-car detached garage with ample space for vehicles, storage, or hobbies.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$861
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $2,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$569
• After-tax cash flow: $4,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlebury Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1806600
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,392
• Composite: 40.0/100
• National rank: #3829
• State rank: #84 of 301 in IN

Livability — Vistula

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,239

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Polish 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · German/W. Germanic 35% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.09%
• Current HPI: 240.6162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $169,900 IRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $179,500 IRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $179,900 IRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $189,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+31.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $861 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.