11505 Celestial Ct · Waco, TX 76655

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily · 291 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A popular choice among families seeking large gathering spaces and ample storage, the 1514 offers luxury living with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. This beautiful home features large secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Open living, dining and kitchen provides abundant space, without all of the cost. Picture yourself washing your dishes as you look out your window as your children play after dinner. The primary bedroom suite is fit for a king-sized bed, and features a large walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms gleam with natural light and tall ceilings. Additional options included: Stainless steel kitchen appliances, painted cabinets throughout, an upgraded front door, and integral miniblinds in

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Open-concept kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WALK-IN PRIMARY CLOSET
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $299,900; Spec home inventory

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric heating and power; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction, Plan: The 1514)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1517 (per plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 11505 Celestial Ct, Lorena TX 76655

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (per plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (per plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-970/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castleman Creek El (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 585 students, 51% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,112 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,708
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,245
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $288,200

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $23	+0% $-81	+5% $-184	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-180	+0% $-81	+5% $19	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $-5	base $-81	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	45d	1	0.46mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.49mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.56mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	45d	1	0.65mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.79mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	45d	1	0.82mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.96mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	22d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 290 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 289 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $299,900 Active 288 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B