2424 S Cottonwood Ln · Tucson, AZ 85713

$40,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next home-this beautifully maintained 2017 residence offers 960 square feet of comfortable living space, thoughtfully designed with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home provides stunning mountain views from every room, creating a peaceful and scenic backdrop to everyday living. Inside, you'll find a functional layout enhanced by a convenient pantry and a full suite of appliances, including a dishwasher, range, refrigerator, and garbage disposal. Outside, the property features a carport for covered parking, awnings for added shade, and a storage shed for extra space. Located within a welcoming community, residents enjoy access to ameni

Key facts

• Pantry
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CORNER LOT
• PANTRY
• FULL SUITE OF APPLIANCES
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 960
• Financial info: List price: $40,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family property (spec plan: Verde Plaza)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.12%
• DSCR: 4.30
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #40	0.25mi	2/2.0	932 (-3%)	7mo	$119,000	$128	78
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #25	0.25mi	2/1.0	832 (-13%)	18mo	$85,500	$103	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $7,347
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $16,304
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	11d	2	0.18mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,175	$1.90	43d	10	0.44mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1871SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	3d	1	0.49mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1851SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	21d	1	0.49mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	23d	2	0.49mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,252	$1.89	1d	23	0.62mi
1975 W 36th St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,284	$1.92	3d	1	0.93mi
673 W 41st St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.94mi
1240 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	530	$850	$1.60	3d	7	1.14mi
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$844	$1.18	3d	4	1.16mi
238 W 33rd St Unit D Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$695	$1.26	43d	1	1.20mi
3601 S 16th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	523	$1,025	$1.96	43d	1	1.20mi
416 W 44th St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$900	$1.15	23d	1	1.21mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	11d	1	1.23mi
3511 S 12th Ave Unit 1101 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$950	$1.26	43d	1	1.26mi
3619 S 14th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	869	$1,410	$1.62	43d	1	1.27mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,700	$1.62	44d	1	1.29mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	14d	1	1.29mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	43d	1	1.35mi
205 W 25th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	43d	1	1.36mi
39 W 30th St Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$874	$1.07	17d	1	1.39mi
39 W 30th St Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$874	$1.07	43d	1	1.39mi
1213 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	3d	1	1.41mi
2411 S 6th Ave Unit 8 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$845	$1.21	21d	1	1.45mi
2411 S 6th Ave Unit 15 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$905	$1.06	21d	1	1.46mi
2411 S 6th Ave Unit 16 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,025	$1.21	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $3,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$728
• After-tax cash flow: $2,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B