107 Childs St · Gray, GA 31032

$189,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,186 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1900 9,583 sqft lot $87/sqft · 23% below area Est $246k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Intown Living! Enjoy the convenience of being right in Gray! This delightful home with unique architectual features throughout offers the beauty of the past with trendy modern updates for today! Spacious with lots of great natural light, beautiful original wood and tile floors add to the ambiance of this home! Fantastic and hard to find, take a look today!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $190k implies a 537% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,623
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -22.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Pinewood Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-8%)	5mo	$250,000	$124	62
193 Virginia Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,188 (+0%)	5mo	$270,000	$123	61
209 Needlecrest Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,075 (-5%)	5mo	$216,000	$104	54
141 Virginia Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,294 (+5%)	10mo	$245,000	$107	50
206 Brookwood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,909 (-13%)	1mo	$143,000	$75	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,399
• Equity at exit: $37,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $43,466
• Equity at exit: $32,819

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,735/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,200	$1.33	43d	1	1.15mi
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,900	$1.15	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $189,900 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-05-02
    status Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Intown Living! Enjoy the convenience of being right in Gray! This delightful home with unique architectual features throughout offers the beauty of the past with trendy modern updates for today! Spacious with lots of great natural light, beautiful original wood and tile floors add to the ambiance of this home! Fantastic and hard to find, take a look today!

11. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Under Contract 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Intown Living! Enjoy the convenience of being right in Gray! This delightful home with unique architectual features throughout offers the beauty of the past with trendy modern updates for today! Spacious with lots of great natural light, beautiful original wood and tile floors add to the ambiance of this home! Fantastic and hard to find, take a look today!

12. 2026-04-20
    listed $189,900 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Intown Living! Enjoy the convenience of being right in Gray! This delightful home with unique architectual features throughout offers the beauty of the past with trendy modern updates for today! Spacious with lots of great natural light, beautiful original wood and tile floors add to the ambiance of this home! Fantastic and hard to find, take a look today!

13. 2026-04-20
    listed $189,900 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Intown Living! Enjoy the convenience of being right in Gray! This delightful home with unique architectual features throughout offers the beauty of the past with trendy modern updates for today! Spacious with lots of great natural light, beautiful original wood and tile floors add to the ambiance of this home! Fantastic and hard to find, take a look today!

14. 2015-09-11
    soldstatus $29,800
15. 2015-07-21
    listed $27,300
16. 2012-04-23
    soldstatus $91,600
17. 2012-04-19
    soldstatus $91,600
18. 2000-08-25
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,735
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $1,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $4,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gray, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+163.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — MGMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $189,900 CGMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $189,900 MGMLS
• 2015-09-11 Sold (MLS) $29,800 GAMLS
• 2015-07-21 Listed $27,300 GAMLS
• 2012-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $91,600 Public Records
• 2012-04-19 Sold (MLS) $91,600 GAMLS
• 2000-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,735 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.