The Emma Plan · Lockhart, TX 78644

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the Emma, one of our one-story floorplans available at Lantana in Lockhart, Texas. This new home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage within 1,572 square feet of living space. Our homes in Lantana feature front masonry exteriors, and the Emma is available in 2 exterior options. As you enter the home from the front porch, you'll cross the foyer to the open concept living area. The kitchen faces out to the dining room and family room, allowing for conversations to flow easily across the space as you make dinner and unwind from your day. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42' upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the kitchen as well as the secondary bathroom. The utility room is in this part of the home and connects to the garage, creating an optional mud room. The other secondary bedroom is located off the dining room, and all bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom features a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. This private ensuite is sure to become your oasis at the end of the day. Enjoy the walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Utility room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $391,978.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,427 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.27%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,978
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -26.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 Hodges St	2.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+0%)	6mo	$324,990	$206	55
5172 Fm 2001	1.79mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-0%)	8mo	$399,000	$254	53
128 Langston Dr	2.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	0mo	$269,990	$188	45
363 Barron Estate Dr	2.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (+6%)	6mo	$358,950	$215	45
341 Hodges St	2.04mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+14%)	8mo	$330,990	$184	35
317 Hodges St	2.22mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+29%)	4mo	$339,990	$167	33
229 Langston Dr	2.15mi	4/2.5	2,036 (+29%)	8mo	$299,990	$147	32
427 Hodges St	2.15mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+29%)	6mo	$314,990	$155	31
3924 Wishing Well Dr	2.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (+29%)	7mo	$374,900	$185	29
215 Langston Dr	2.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,850 (+18%)	8mo	$279,990	$151	27
3922 Wishing Well Dr	2.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (+26%)	8mo	$399,900	$202	27
201 Varner Way	2.17mi	2/2.5 (-2)	1,130 (-28%)	6mo	$219,990	$195	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-129,131
• Equity at exit: $58,445

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-196,844
• Equity at exit: $33,891

Cash invested: $109,754 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $279,990 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 133 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,056
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,880/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-1,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,429

Max offer price $242,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-760	-5% $-895	+0% $-1,031	+5% $-1,166	+10% $-1,302
Rent	-10% $-1,199	-5% $-1,115	+0% $-1,031	+5% $-947	+10% $-863
Rate	-1.0pp $-833	-0.5pp $-931	base $-1,031	+0.5pp $-1,132	+1.0pp $-1,236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,995
• Closing costs: $11,759
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,990 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $289,990 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 97 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 96 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 95 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 94 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 93 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 92 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 80 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 79 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 73 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 72 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 71 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 67 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,957
• − Property taxes: −$5,880
• − Insurance: −$1,960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$11,403
• Taxable loss: −$19,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,749
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new home in Lockhart, Texas, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good curb appeal. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern, high-end appliances can significantly boost the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Clear Fork El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

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Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $289,990 Zillow