970 Dillard Dr SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$369,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2016 6,970 sqft lot $81/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in one of Bayside's most desirable and quiet neighborhoods! Featuring an open-concept design with soaring ceilings and a large bonus room, this home offers both comfort and functionality. The spacious kitchen is the heart of the home, showcasing updated cabinetry, newer appliances, a large island with seating, and excellent flow into the main living and dining areas--perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Recent improvements include newer luxury vinyl plank flooring, interior and exterior paint, a newer A/C system, garage screen door, and an updated guest bath shower. Additional features include irrigation, a smart doorbe

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Spacious kitchen
• Newer appliances

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING
• INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot has few trees
• HOA & community: Community association (Amberwood/Wellington); Monthly association fee; Community clubhouse; Playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Storm shutters
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces east; Open floorplan
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Storm shutters; Screened rear porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and separate shower; Split bedrooms; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-815 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (39.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,883 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $150,655
• Equity at exit: $332,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $487,733
• Equity at exit: $716,886

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,962/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,270

Max offer price $225,088

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	14d	1	0.20mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	14d	1	0.26mi
555 Gagnon St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,400	$1.01	23d	1	0.30mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	21d	1	0.41mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	21d	1	0.45mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	0.46mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	14d	1	0.61mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	14d	1	0.63mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	23d	1	0.68mi
402 Breckenridge Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	23d	1	0.70mi
2250 Chinaberry Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,995	$1.20	23d	1	0.81mi
978 Remington Green Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.93mi
2650 De Groodt Rd SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,350	$1.25	14d	1	1.05mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	23d	1	1.06mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	13d	1	1.25mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	14d	1	1.27mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	21d	1	1.27mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.28mi
238 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	1.29mi
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	13d	1	1.30mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	19d	1	1.31mi
2437 Hagoplan Ave SW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $369,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $369,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,962 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,962 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$4,962
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$16,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-76.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $369,000 SCMLS
• 2011-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,962 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.