15500 Bubbling Wls #174 · Garnet, CA 92240

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1972 $44/sqft · 8% above area Est $60k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super clean, open floor plan, with updated kitchen, newer a/c and heating. Newer front deck, corner lot with extra off-street parking and storage.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER FRONT DECK
• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA OFF-STREET PARKING
• STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.9% vs local median 6.0% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,670/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.44%
• DSCR: 5.87
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #265	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	3mo	$45,000	$31	95
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #300	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	7mo	$55,000	$38	91
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #237	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	13mo	$40,000	$28	86
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #277	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	1mo	$55,000	$36	84
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #104	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	15mo	$125,000	$87	78
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #243	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	3mo	$69,500	$52	73
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #283	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	15mo	$75,000	$56	73
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #191	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	17mo	$126,000	$94	72
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #253	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,610 (+10%)	6mo	$48,000	$30	72
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #108	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	17mo	$95,000	$73	61
67644 San Andreas St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+8%)	7mo	$275,000	$173	58
16160 Avenida Mirola	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	14mo	$318,000	$237	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $89,299
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.63×
• Total profit: $211,753
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $1,538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	24d	1	0.19mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	44d	1	0.19mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$5,000	$2.70	44d	1	0.27mi
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.99mi
13440 Quinta Way Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.16mi
68160 Calle Blanco Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	44d	1	1.26mi
13235 Mountain View Rd Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	1.28mi
13553 Avenida La Vis Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,495	$1.54	44d	1	1.28mi
12920 Inaja St Unit C Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $65,000 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Super clean, open floor plan, with updated kitchen, newer a/c and heating. Newer front deck, corner lot with extra off-street parking and storage.

16. 2003-05-01
    historical
17. 2003-04-07
    listed $25,900
18. 2001-11-30
    historical
19. 2001-10-23
    listed $19,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥111°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $18,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,467
• After-tax cash flow: $13,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+225.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2003-05-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2003-04-07 Listed $25,900 GPSMLS
• 2001-11-30 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2001-10-23 Listed $19,950 GPSMLS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $106 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.