207 Donald Dr · Warrington, FL 32507

$102,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 905 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot Est $155k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This 2br 1ba brick home features a detached 1 car garage, hardwood floors and ceiling fans. With some work, this home will impress!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Concrete patio
• Major updates

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN LAYOUT
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• FENCED YARD
• CONCRETE PATIO
• DETACHED BRICK GARAGE
• MAJOR UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Detached (not attached to another property); Shingle gable roof; Insulation as a green/energy-efficient feature; Paved, publicly maintained road access; Central access lot feature
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Off-grade foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11' x 13')
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living/dining combination; Updated kitchen; Not original kitchen (updated 6–10 years ago)
• Laundry & utility: Electric service with circuit breakers

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $102k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.36%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,755
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Donald Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	905 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$110	100
321 Chaseville St	0.43mi	2/1.0	902 (-0%)	7mo	$107,000	$119	74
629 Rue Max St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+13%)	1mo	$222,000	$218	67
301 Chaseville St	0.51mi	2/1.0	874 (-3%)	4mo	$157,900	$181	67
227 Ada Wilson Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	862 (-5%)	11mo	$100,000	$116	64
209 Marine Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	984 (+9%)	2mo	$177,500	$180	64
201 Chaseville St	0.54mi	2/1.0	878 (-3%)	9mo	$150,000	$171	62
407 Rue Max St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,029 (+14%)	10mo	$185,000	$180	58
306 Frisco Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-2%)	9mo	$68,500	$77	57
225 Delray Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	950 (+5%)	12mo	$149,000	$157	53
214 Hermey Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+11%)	12mo	$70,000	$69	51
1230 Wilson Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	995 (+10%)	12mo	$210,000	$211	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,762
• Equity at exit: $15,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $46,198
• Equity at exit: $8,819

Cash invested: $28,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $102,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,500
• Closing costs: $3,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Rue Max St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	862	$1,395	$1.62	23d	1	0.51mi
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	23d	1	0.67mi
5 Elegans Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	788	$1,195	$1.52	23d	1	0.82mi
825 Bayshore Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0	1.0	669	$1,800	$2.69	23d	1	0.84mi
190 N Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,174	$1.28	14d	3	0.88mi
615 Bayshore Dr #806 Pensacola, FL	1.0	1.0	930	$1,850	$1.99	23d	1	1.00mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	1.01mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	23d	1	1.01mi
26 N Lincoln Rd Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	759	$1,050	$1.38	14d	1	1.08mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	23d	1	1.11mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	23d	1	1.15mi
4600 Twin Oaks Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,499	$1.79	14d	29	1.17mi
2 E Sunset Ave Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	23d	1	1.32mi
3740 Frontera Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,295	$1.26	23d	1	1.33mi
1036 Hawthorn Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	23d	1	1.36mi
419 N Wentworth St Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	23d	1	1.44mi
316 Teakwood Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $102,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-20
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-05-18
   listed $102,000 Active
4. 2010-12-17
   soldstatus $25,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 2br 1ba brick home features a detached 1 car garage, hardwood floors and ceiling fans. With some work, this home will impress!

5. 2010-10-24
   listed $21,900 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 2br 1ba brick home features a detached 1 car garage, hardwood floors and ceiling fans. With some work, this home will impress!

6. 2004-05-14
   soldstatus $42,500
7. 2004-05-07
   soldstatus $42,500 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Great Investment or Rental Opportunity! ** This home is in good condition! Hardwood floors. Breakfast bar! Convenient to Base! This is an estate sale and being sold "AS IS". This is not a fixer upper. The work has already been done! Take a look. You won't be disappointed!

8. 2003-11-04
   listed $44,900 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Great Investment or Rental Opportunity! ** This home is in good condition! Hardwood floors. Breakfast bar! Convenient to Base! This is an estate sale and being sold "AS IS". This is not a fixer upper. The work has already been done! Take a look. You won't be disappointed!

9. 1980-02-01
   soldstatus $24,000
10. 1969-01-01
    soldstatus $9,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 59.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,714
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$2,967
• Taxable income: $4,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $5,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+930.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $102,000 PARMLS
• 2010-12-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 PARMLS
• 2010-10-24 Listed $21,900 PARMLS
• 2004-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2004-05-07 Sold (MLS) $42,500 PARMLS
• 2003-11-04 Listed $44,900 PARMLS
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1969-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.