510 Carthage St · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$281,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,735 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,621 sqft lot Est $288k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Led lighting
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder listing; Posession at closing/funding or upon completion; Financing options include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with full use of facilities; Annual HOA fee of $480; HOA management company: NMI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18' wide x 20' long, 10' height); 2 covered parking spaces (2-car single door)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric service; Energy-efficient features including upgraded attic insulation, HVAC, insulation, lighting, thermostat, water heater, and windows
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot less than 0.5 acre; Municipal utility district

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Secondary bedrooms feature a split-bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan with decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island and pantry; Granite counters; Cable TV available; High speed internet available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-982/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,948 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,010
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Flintlock Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	3mo	$287,490	$166	91
412 Tia Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	8mo	$299,430	$173	85
211 Bobcat Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	3mo	$294,030	$169	84
413 Range Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	3mo	$331,490	$181	80
215 Bobcat Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	3mo	$298,990	$163	71
506 Range Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+12%)	3mo	$299,490	$155	70
211 Buckboard Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	3mo	$299,650	$164	70
412 Bailey Way	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+5%)	7mo	$300,000	$165	68
300 Tia Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	8mo	$283,000	$155	68
402 Range Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+12%)	7mo	$334,990	$173	64
108 Condor Pass	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+6%)	2mo	$267,999	$146	62
3159 Ridgeview Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,979 (+14%)	7mo	$509,900	$258	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,764
• Equity at exit: $41,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,666
• Equity at exit: $24,338

Cash invested: $78,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,222/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $269,651

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $15	+0% $-82	+5% $-179	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-177	+0% $-82	+5% $13	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-10	base $-82	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,372
• Closing costs: $8,445
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	3d	1	0.01mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,400	$1.19	26d	1	0.29mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	14d	1	0.50mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	45d	1	0.56mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	7d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $281,490 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,490 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,490 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,490 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,490 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,490 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,490 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,490 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,490 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,490 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $281,490 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 626-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $331,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,768
• − Property taxes: −$4,222
• − Insurance: −$1,407
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,189
• Taxable loss: −$5,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It has a good layout and modern finishes, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $331,490 NTREIS