8153 E Patrick Henry Rd · Hanover, VA 23005

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,881 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1965 0.61 ac lot $159/sqft · 24% below area Est $393k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1 Level Rambler Situated on a Generous . 61 Acre Lot Offering Incredible Potential and Timeless Appeal. This Home Features a Warm and Inviting Fireplace, Hardwood Floors, Spacious Bedrooms, and a Bright Sunroom Perfect for Relaxing or Entertaining Year-Round. Enjoy the Open Feel of Vaulted Ceilings Along with a Welcoming Covered Front Porch Ideal for Morning Coffee or Evening Unwinding. The Expansive Lot Provides Plenty of Outdoor Space, Complete with Large Storage Sheds for All Your Tools, Hobbies, or Equipment. With Solid Bones and Desirable Features Already in Place, This Property Presents a Fantastic Opportunity for Buyers Looking to add their Personal Touch Through Updating and Cosmetic Improvements. A Rare Chance to Create Your Dream Home in a Peaceful Setting with Room to Grow. Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.6% in Hanover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#539 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $300k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,648 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,893
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -23.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8153 E Patrick Henry Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,881 (0%)	1mo	$294,900	$157	99
13366 Depot Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,654 (-12%)	4mo	$415,000	$251	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-69,196
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-87,020
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23005

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $243,004

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Charming 1 Level Rambler Situated on a Generous . 61 Acre Lot Offering Incredible Potential and Timeless Appeal. This Home Features a Warm and Inviting Fireplace, Hardwood Floors, Spacious Bedrooms, and a Bright Sunroom Perfect for Relaxing or Entertaining Year-Round. Enjoy the Open Feel of Vaulted Ceilings Along with a Welcoming Covered Front Porch Ideal for Morning Coffee or Evening Unwinding. The Expansive Lot Provides Plenty of Outdoor Space, Complete with Large Storage Sheds for All Your Tools, Hobbies, or Equipment. With Solid Bones and Desirable Features Already in Place, This Property Presents a Fantastic Opportunity for Buyers Looking to add their Personal Touch Through Updating and Cosmetic Improvements. A Rare Chance to Create Your Dream Home in a Peaceful Setting with Room to Grow. Sold As-Is.

2. 2026-03-26
   listed $299,900 Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Charming 1 Level Rambler Situated on a Generous . 61 Acre Lot Offering Incredible Potential and Timeless Appeal. This Home Features a Warm and Inviting Fireplace, Hardwood Floors, Spacious Bedrooms, and a Bright Sunroom Perfect for Relaxing or Entertaining Year-Round. Enjoy the Open Feel of Vaulted Ceilings Along with a Welcoming Covered Front Porch Ideal for Morning Coffee or Evening Unwinding. The Expansive Lot Provides Plenty of Outdoor Space, Complete with Large Storage Sheds for All Your Tools, Hobbies, or Equipment. With Solid Bones and Desirable Features Already in Place, This Property Presents a Fantastic Opportunity for Buyers Looking to add their Personal Touch Through Updating and Cosmetic Improvements. A Rare Chance to Create Your Dream Home in a Peaceful Setting with Room to Grow. Sold As-Is.

3. 1995-08-01
   soldstatus $82,500
4. 1994-12-01
   soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hanover

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #24856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment C- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hanover, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,987
• Household income: $89,335
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.63%
• Current HPI: 257.9445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1994-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.