Bedford EXT Plan · Southport, NC 28461

$257,650

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Townhouse · 179 Days on market

Good condition Garage $265/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bedford I offers a thoughtfully designed single-level layout, creating the perfect balance of comfort and versatility. The open concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living room, providing an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. A private owner's suite is tucked toward the rear of the home, featuring a spacious layout, walk-in closet, and well-appointed bath for a true retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned separately, offering privacy for guests or family.

Key facts

• $265 HOA
• Garage
• Listed 179 days

🏗️ New construction. The $257,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,227.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,475 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #245 of 1,410 statewide, top 18%, 403 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,372 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,227
• List price: $257,650
• Delta: -5.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
569 Pelican Cove Way SE #260	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,243 (0%)	1mo	$271,227	$218	91
3121 Weather Side Dr SE #151	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+21%)	2mo	$299,900	$200	72
774 Pelican Cove Way SE #302	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+27%)	2mo	$307,900	$195	68
3129 Weather Side Dr SE #153	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,498 (+20%)	3mo	$322,400	$215	68
767 Pelican Cove Way SE #213	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+27%)	4mo	$339,000	$214	65
4148 Carlyle Pl SE	2.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	6mo	$395,000	$321	53
3864 Harmony Cir SE	1.65mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+7%)	3mo	$350,000	$263	51
3807 Harmony Cir SE	1.76mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+13%)	6mo	$400,000	$286	39
4071 Country Garden Ln	1.80mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+14%)	5mo	$340,000	$239	37
3803 Harmony Cir SE	1.77mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+25%)	8mo	$370,000	$238	34
3843 Winding Vine Way	1.82mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+27%)	8mo	$390,000	$247	33
3227 Bay Winds Dr	1.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (+16%)	7mo	$450,000	$312	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-77,483
• Equity at exit: $40,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-122,596
• Equity at exit: $23,451

Cash invested: $75,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $239,900 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 168 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28461

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1299
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,422
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,068/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $205,372

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-361	+0% $-455	+5% $-549	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-539	+0% $-455	+5% $-371	+10% $-287
Rate	-1.0pp $-319	-0.5pp $-386	base $-455	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,807
• Closing costs: $8,137
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Headwater Dr SE Southport, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,951	$1.92	0d	47	0.27mi
1045 Woodsia Way Oak Island, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,720	$2.57	7d	14	1.01mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered/garage parking space (1 total parking)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Bedford EXT)New construction / Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,243 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Bedford EXT plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $257,650 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $257,650 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $257,650 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $257,650 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $257,650 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $257,650 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $257,650 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $257,650 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $257,650 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $257,650 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $257,650 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $257,650 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $257,650 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $257,650 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $257,650 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $257,650 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $257,650 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $257,650 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $257,650 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $257,650 Active 159 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $257,650 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $257,650 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $257,650 Active 156 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $257,650 Active 155 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $257,650 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $257,650 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $257,650 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $257,650 Active 151 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $257,650 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $257,650 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $257,650 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $257,650 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $257,650 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $257,650 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $257,650 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $257,650 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $257,650 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $257,650 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $257,650 Active 140 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $257,650 Active 139 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $257,650 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $257,650 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $257,650 Active 135 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $257,650 Active 134 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $257,650 Active 133 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $257,650 Active 132 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $257,650 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $257,650 Active 130 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $257,650 Active 129 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $257,650 Active 128 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,193
• − Property taxes: −$4,068
• − Insurance: −$1,356
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$7,890
• Taxable loss: −$10,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Bedford I townhouse is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a thoughtfully designed single-level layout with a spacious owner's suite and two additional bedrooms. Enhancing the exterior with a fresh coat of paint and improving the landscaping would significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southport Elementary C+ NC #245/1,410 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle South Brunswick Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Southport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,762
• Household income: $82,692
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.19%
• Current HPI: 142.5667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed price available (active listing)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered/garage parking space (1 total parking)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Bedford EXT)New construction / Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,243 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Bedford EXT plan)