7813 N Lagoon Dr Unit 5D · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 861 sqft · Condo public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1985 $238/sqft · 11% below area Est $229k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MUST SEE!! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 Bed / 2 Bath Condo in Greenwood Estates!! This ground floor condo is located on the East End of Panama City Beach and sits only steps away from the Lagoon. The condo features new vinyl plank flooring throughout the living area, kitchen & bedrooms. The kitchen features all new Frigidaire appliances, a farmhouse sink and soft close cabinets. Both bathrooms have been completely renovated as well. They feature tiled showers, tiled flooring, new vanities and new toilets. The HVAC & water heater are also new. This is the perfect condo for full-time living or weekend retreats. The condo is being sold partially-furnished. Only the bedroom furniture conveys with purchase. Greenwood Estates offers a community pool and a large pavilion. Nearby attractions include Captain Andersons Marina and St. Andrews State Park. There are also many dining, shopping and entertainment options a short stroll away. Short-term rentals are not allowed. Schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• Tiled flooring
• Tiled showers
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• TILED SHOWERS
• TILED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $205k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,530 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,254
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -10.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-61,382
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-91,138
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,764/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$518
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $128,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.04mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.16mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.48mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	0.51mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.61mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	0.69mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.95mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	1.05mi
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	21d	1	1.20mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.25mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	21d	1	1.27mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	21d	1	1.31mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.40mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	13d	41	1.41mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.41mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	13d	18	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $205,000 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    MUST SEE!! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 Bed / 2 Bath Condo in Greenwood Estates!! This ground floor condo is located on the East End of Panama City Beach and sits only steps away from the Lagoon. The condo features new vinyl plank flooring throughout the living area, kitchen & bedrooms. The kitchen features all new Frigidaire appliances, a farmhouse sink and soft close cabinets. Both bathrooms have been completely renovated as well. They feature tiled showers, tiled flooring, new vanities and new toilets. The HVAC & water heater are also new. This is the perfect condo for full-time living or weekend retreats. The condo is being sold partially-furnished. Only the bedroom furniture conveys with purchase. Greenwood Estates offers a community pool and a large pavilion. Nearby attractions include Captain Andersons Marina and St. Andrews State Park. There are also many dining, shopping and entertainment options a short stroll away. Short-term rentals are not allowed. Schedule your showing today!!

19. 2026-03-23
    price $219,500 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    MUST SEE!! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 Bed / 2 Bath Condo in Greenwood Estates!! This ground floor condo is located on the East End of Panama City Beach and sits only steps away from the Lagoon. The condo features new vinyl plank flooring throughout the living area, kitchen & bedrooms. The kitchen features all new Frigidaire appliances, a farmhouse sink and soft close cabinets. Both bathrooms have been completely renovated as well. They feature tiled showers, tiled flooring, new vanities and new toilets. The HVAC & water heater are also new. This is the perfect condo for full-time living or weekend retreats. The condo is being sold partially-furnished. Only the bedroom furniture conveys with purchase. Greenwood Estates offers a community pool and a large pavilion. Nearby attractions include Captain Andersons Marina and St. Andrews State Park. There are also many dining, shopping and entertainment options a short stroll away. Short-term rentals are not allowed. Schedule your showing today!!

20. 2026-02-21
    listed $230,000 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    MUST SEE!! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 Bed / 2 Bath Condo in Greenwood Estates!! This ground floor condo is located on the East End of Panama City Beach and sits only steps away from the Lagoon. The condo features new vinyl plank flooring throughout the living area, kitchen & bedrooms. The kitchen features all new Frigidaire appliances, a farmhouse sink and soft close cabinets. Both bathrooms have been completely renovated as well. They feature tiled showers, tiled flooring, new vanities and new toilets. The HVAC & water heater are also new. This is the perfect condo for full-time living or weekend retreats. The condo is being sold partially-furnished. Only the bedroom furniture conveys with purchase. Greenwood Estates offers a community pool and a large pavilion. Nearby attractions include Captain Andersons Marina and St. Andrews State Park. There are also many dining, shopping and entertainment options a short stroll away. Short-term rentals are not allowed. Schedule your showing today!!

21. 1997-04-01
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,764
• − Insurance: −$1,822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − HOA: −$6,216
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$8,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+298.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $205,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $219,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $230,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,764 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.